Alerts: 09/September 2018

ALERT

Week Ending September 28, 2018

Bull Sector 24% Yield, $13 BUY RECO and Forecasts: US$/€, U.S. T-Notes, T-Bonds, & Interest Rates; Equities; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper & Other Commodities

Our Bull Sector 24% Yield, $13 BUY RECO meets Two Key Criteria for our Stock RECOs this year.

1)   Great Gain Potential — we expect Continued High yield and great stock Price Appreciation Potential and

2)   Be in our Top Two Bull Sectors likely to prosper even in the Mega-Market Move which is coming soon!

Forecasts

Note: for more Detailed Analysis, see our Forecasts for Week Ending September 14.

U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates

The $US has stabilized a bit to bounce around 94, anticipating a Fed Rate Hike this week, bouncing around 94.50 basis USDX.

But inflation is aborning with the US (as we Forecast!) 10-Year Yield now up bouncing up over 3.1%ish, which is a harbinger of what is coming — Hyperinflation.

And Volatility is rising on Currency War (CW) Realities and Trade WAR (TW) fears.

Here’s why:

As we noted recently, rates are slowly rising worldwide and Liquidity (The Big L) is drying up from rising rates and Q.T. (Quantitative Tightening). Long-term, The $US is likely Toast because, inter alia, the U.S. has unpayable Debt. And the $US has increasing competition as the World’s Reserve Currency from

—   IMF-SDRs and

—   Gold-Backed Chinese Yuan

—    And now the Euro, according to Herr Juncker.

And FYI, we fully expect The Private For-Profit Fed to continue to raise rates to increase the profits of its Mega-Bank Owners (until, of course, we get the Mega-Crash). Indeed, The Fed does not care about Inflation or the Well-Being of U.S. Citizens, but only of its Mega-Bank Owners.

Equities

Trade War Fears, a Currency War, Tech Shakeout and rising Inflation aborning are all roiling the Markets so they are now bouncing around all-time highs. Even  the Tech Darlings are topping.

Indeed, Facebook and Google and Twitter are about to be, and should be, heavily regulated, since they are content censors and Public Utilities. They use the publicly funded Internet as their own political Soapbox.

Our earlier forecast “Crash Legs could begin at any time” is coming ever closer.

Short-term we are now seeing what is likely the Blow-Off Top for the Equities Markets, perhaps, indeed to new all-time Highs.

And 14 Consecutive Hindenberg Omen’s are “on the Clock”. See September 7th’s detailed analysis.

The Activation of just one Trigger could send the Dow 2,000 points lower, the NASDAQ 1000 point lower, and they S&P 200 points lower.

But our Bull Sector picks should do well in a Crash. See this week’s 24% Yielding Buy Recommendation below.

Gold and Silver

EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE Cartel Price Suppression has forced the Precious Metals lower over the last few months.

WHY the Intensity? The Cartel is preparing for what they know is coming — Crashes in several Key Sectors, and that will cause a Rush to the Precious Metals. Thus, The Cartel wants that Launch UP to start from a lower Base!

Indeed, rising Rates are the Harbinger of the coming Inflation and the Precious Metals Moves up this week reflect that.

Thus, the recent relatively low prices will not last.

Notice that the Precious Metals bounces (e.g., this week) are increasingly strong and The Cartel’s suppressions increasingly strong—it smells like The Cartel’s Desperation is increasing, because they know that one day soon, they will be unable to contain the bounce. In other words, the increasing Precious Metals VIX  and much higher Precious Metals Derivatives Totals (see below) tells us that that Breakout is coming ever closer.

GATA has raised another profoundly important question about the gold market in Monetary metals derivatives soar, so who ARE those guys?

“The quarterly report from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showing bank trading revenue …contains two remarkable graphs showing the increase in the notional value of gold and precious metals derivatives held by “U.S. commercial banks and savings associations” quarter by quarter since 2001.

“These derivatives, according to the charts, have increased for ‘foreign exchange and gold’ from about $4 trillion at the end of 2001 to nearly $40 trillion in the quarter ending in July this year, and for other precious metals from about $2.5 billion at the end of 2001 to nearly $50 billion in the quarter ended in July this year…

“The powerful implication here is that the trading of futures market derivatives through intermediaries, particularly JPMorganChase & Co., is the mechanism by which the U.S. government is suppressing commodity prices…

“Why the gold (and FX) and the ‘other precious metals’ (presumably silver) derivatives have increased 10-fold and 20-fold in 17 years is certainly a legitimate question. Mine supply has of course not risen anything like this amount.”

The JBGJ report on the dramatic $ Multi-Trillion increase in Precious Metals Derivatives indicates the increasing intensity of the suppression.

But decreasing (relative to Demand) Mine supply of Gold and Silver and the fact that Russia, China, and India are all taking Delivery of Physical indicate that Gold and Silver could launch at any time now, and we expect will indeed launch soon. In our view, Silver has the most upside.

In that connection, we recommend you consider our DHPS Precious Metals Royalty play BUY RECO two weeks ago — it has great gain potential and yield.

Crude Oil & Copper & Other Commodities

Recent $US Strength and U.S. Jawboning of OPEC had caused WTI to drop to $65ish and Copper to below $3ish; but the prospect of inflation, above-ground drawdowns, increasing political conflict risks, and more recent $US Weakness has caused Oil to bounce back over $70.

Indeed, Crude may continue to spike up because of any one or more of the following could occur.

  1. Multiple Tensions in the Mideast and Iranian and Venezuelan Chaos demonstrate the actual and potential Threats to the Oil Supply Market.
  2. Thus, the increasing Political Instability in Iran and Venezuela is Threatening Supply
  3. A “Risk On” appetite is returning to the Markets (but likely not to last long) and
  4. The OPEC production quotas not only holding but expected to be continued and the demand for Crude has increased and therefore, the Price. Thus, Higher Crude Prices (approaching $75ish for WTI) recently also resulted from several Factors:
    • The IEA indicated Demand is rising faster than anticipated and unanticipated above-ground supply drawdown, and
    • Very Real Inflation Expectations, perhaps the most important Driver!
    • Anticipation of Greater Economic Growth resulting from the Tax Reform Also resulting in higher Near-Term Prices
  5. Several straight weeks of declining above ground inventories and especially now,
  6. And above all, until recently, the Crude Oil Price was up because it “smells” inflation coming! Energy is a good Inflation Hedge.
  7. And Saudi Arabia said it would be happy to see $80 Crude

Bottom line: Oil Supplies are Tight World Wide.

Therefore, WTI Crude has most recently spiked up over $74. And the long-term Crude Price Trend is up from here (subject to further intermittent dips on bad Economic News and Equities Markets Crash Legs) especially when The Fed starts printing Money from Helicopters in response to an Equities Crash Leg.

However, the U.S., not Saudi Arabia, is now the swing producer because fracking becomes quite profitable when WTI is over $60. And, Many Investors still buy the Economic Recovery Narrative (false in our view), but that view will weaken as the Equities Multiple-Crash Scenario unfolds. Indeed, the weakening Sentiment has already begun among sophisticated Investors.

As well, for the aforementioned and other reasons we lay out elsewhere in this Alert, Crude Oil (and Copper) are likely not destined to remain at these still relatively high price levels for more than a few months, i.e., near $70 (and near $3) forever.

However, all that said, recent ample supply and $US weakness has once again driven prices to $70ish.

They too will crash again temporarily as Equities move into another Crash Leg (see Equities for forecast Timing) and will revive again only on the printing of Helicopter Money likely to begin by Q4 of 2018, i.e., on an increasingly Devalued U.S. Dollar.

Then likely by Q1 or Q2 of 2019, as we get Money from Helicopters, Oil (and Copper) should reverse and move much higher (perhaps to $80ish) (and well over $3 for Copper) as we move into The Inflation Phase, via (we expect) Fed-printed Helicopter Money. Indeed, the Inflation-generated move back up could come earlier than Q1 2019.

In sum, both Crude and Copper are likely to Fall when the recent Mainstream Media Spin that the Economy is Recovering ends with a Bang when the Bond and Equities Crash Legs and (highly likely) concatenating Credit Default Event/s (probably Beginning in Energy or Tech or Small Caps) delegitimize that Spin.

But then, prices of Crude and Copper are likely to spike Upward Again as The Fed (et al) we forecast will engage in another round of QE probably beginning in late 2018 or early 2019.

Important Conclusion — Medium- to Long-Term, Energy and The Energy Infrastructure and Key Commodities are The Bull Sectors just as Silver is The BULL Asset.

Therefore, in the mid- to long-term, we expect increasing Inflation will cause Crude and Copper & Other Commodities (e.g., Silver and Uranium and Key Ag  and Rare Earth Metals Products Prices to continue to Trend Up (See our recent Buy Recommendations) until a mega-event crash trigger occurs and a visibly Stagnant economy suppresses prices.

CAVEAT: In the very long run, (i.e., more than three years out) Crude is likely to spike up even higher again, not merely because The Fed, et al, print money from helicopters, but also because the potential reserves/production from fracked wells has been wildly exaggerated. Fact: Horizontally Fracked wells Depletion Rates are much higher than advertised, thus reserves are much lower than advertised.

Hyper-Stagflation and displacement of the $US as WRC likely are coming within the next couple of years.

See our High Potential Profit & Protective Bull Portfolio. And our Bull Sector Buy Recommendation below:

Bull Sector High Yield Buy Recommendation

Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP) is a leading provider of “Sand” to Frackers in the Oil Industry. Wells using Horizontal Fracking are THE Growing Segment in the Oil Industry and Fracking requires Sand to produce the subsurface Rock Reservoir.

Indeed, HCLP, together with its subsidiaries, provides proppant and logistics solutions to the energy industry in North America. The company produces monocrystalline sand, a specialized mineral used as a proppant during the well completion process to facilitate the recovery of hydrocarbons from oil and natural gas wells. It owns, operates, and develops sand reserves, and excavation and processing facilities, which include 1,447-acre facility with integrated rail infrastructure, located near Independence, Wisconsin and Whitehall, Wisconsin; 971-acre facility with integrated rail infrastructure, located in Wyeville, Wisconsin; 1,187-acre Augusta facility with integrated rail infrastructure, situated in Eau Claire County, Wisconsin; and 1,285-acre facility with integrated rail infrastructure, located near Blair, Wisconsin. The company offers raw frac sand used in hydraulic fracturing process for oil and natural gas wells. It primarily serves pressure pumping service providers, and oil and gas exploration and production companies. Hi-Crush GP LLC operates as the general partner of the company. Hi-Crush Partners LP was founded in 2012 and is based in Houston, Texas.

And HCLP has projected Earnings Growth of 165%, a recent Dividend Raise to .75¢ per share from .225¢ per share and it trades at a low 4.5 times forward earnings at under $13 per share.

Recommendation to Consider:

Buy HCLP at or under $13 per share.

CAVEAT: Oil Demand (and thus the demand for “Sand”) are very sensitive to Economic and Market Forces. Thus, the Crash we expect could diminish the demand for “sand” for a few months or a very few years (until an economic recovery) thus impairing HCLP’s income.

Also see our High Potential Profit & Protective Bull Portfolio.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
September 25, 2018

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2018 Update” on the ‘Two Free Reports’ page at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Consider also Deepcaster’s “December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel‘s Dark Interventions – III.” Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at Deepcaster LLC (deepcaster.com) have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported September 13, 2018
2.70%     /    10.48%

U.S. Unemployment reported September 7, 2018
3.85%     /     21.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported August 31, 2018 (Q2)
2.89%        /     -1.35%

U.S. M3 reported September 6th, 2018 (Month of August 2018, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 3.97% (e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.937 Trillion!)


SPECIAL ALERT

Week Ending September 21, 2018

Mega-Markets Manipulation Exposed; Antidotes & Forecasts

It is critical that Investors become aware of a Unique Form of Massive Markets Manipulation which has just been exposed, so that Investors may both Profit and, especially, Protect Wealth.

See our Forecasts and our Antidotes.

California Attorney, Ellen Brown, has done us all a Great Service by exposing the fact that “Central Bankers are now aggressively playing the Stock Market.”

We explore Key Ramifications, Profit Potential and Antidotes after the following extensive quotation from her, “Central Banks have gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk.”

“Central bankers are now aggressively playing the stock market. …They can create money at will, and they have declared their ‘independence’ from government. They have become rogue players in a game of their own.

“…[T]he largest single players in global equity markets are now thought to be central banks themselves. An estimated 30 to 40 central banks are invested in the stock market….

“Central banks buying stocks are effectively nationalizing US corporations just to maintain the illusion that their “recovery” plan is working . . . . At first, their novel entry into the stock market was only intended to rescue imperiled corporations, such as General Motors during the first plunge into the Great Recession, but recently their efforts have shifted to propping up the entire stock market via major purchases of the most healthy companies on the market.

“The US Federal Reserve … is legally barred from owning equities. It parks its reserves instead in bonds and other government-backed securities. But other countries have different rules, and today central banks are buying individual stocks as investments, with a preference for big tech stocks like Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft. Those are the stocks that dominate the market, and central banks are bidding them up aggressively. Markets, including the US stock market, are thus literally being rigged by foreign central banks.

“… [C]entral bankers … are increasingly nationalizing the equity capital markets.” At least they would be nationalizing equities, if they were actually “national” central banks. But the Swiss National Bank, the biggest single player in this game, is 48% privately owned; and most central banks have declared their independence from their governments. They march to the drums not of government but of big international banks. (!! Ed.)

“… That means when and how the economy will collapse is now in the hands of central bankers.

Moving Goal Posts

“The two most aggressive central bank players in the equity markets are the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan. The goal of the Bank of Japan, which now owns 75% of Japanese exchange-traded funds…. About 20% of the SNB’s reserves are in equities, and more than half of that is in US equities. The SNB’s goal is said to be to counteract the global demand for Swiss francs, which has been driving up the value of the national currency ….

“That is a reasonable explanation for the SNB’s actions, but some critics suspect other motives. Switzerland is home to the Bank for International Settlements, the “central bankers’ bank” in Basel, where central bankers meet regularly behind closed doors. Dr. Carroll Quigley, a Georgetown history professor who claimed to be the historian of the international bankers, wrote of this institution in Tragedy and Hope in 1966:

“[T]he powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences. The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations.

“The key to their success, said Quigley, was that they would control and manipulate the money system of a nation while letting it appear to be controlled by the government. The economic and political systems of nations would be controlled not by citizens but by bankers, for the benefit of bankers. The goal was to establish an independent (privately owned or controlled) central bank in every country. Today, that goal has largely been achieved.

“… Dr. Richard Werner, Director of International Development at the University of Southampton in the UK, argued that central banks have managed to achieve total independence from government and total lack of accountability to the people, and that they are now in the process of consolidating their powers … by creating bubbles, busts, and economic chaos.

“But today’s central banks, he says, are following the disastrous Reichsbank model, involving an unprecedented concentration of power without accountability. Central banks are not held responsible for their massive policy mistakes and reckless creation of boom-bust cycles, banking crises and large-scale unemployment. Youth unemployment now exceeds 50 percent in Spain and Greece. Many central banks remain in private hands, including not only the Swiss National Bank but the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Italian, Greek and South African central banks.

Banks and Central Banks Should Be Made Public Utilities

“Werner’s proposed solution to this dangerous situation is to bypass both the central banks and the big international banks and decentralize power by creating and supporting local not-for-profit public banks. … Legally, he notes, 97 percent of the money supply is already just private company credit, which can be created by any company, with or without a banking license. Governments should stop issuing government bonds, he says, and instead fund their public sector credit needs through domestic banks that create money on their books (as all banks have the power to do). These banks could offer more competitive rates ….

“Abolishing the central banks is one possibility, but if they were recaptured as public utilities, they could serve some useful purposes. A central bank dedicated to the service of the public could act as an unlimited source of liquidity for a system of public banks, eliminating bank runs since the central bank cannot go bankrupt. It could also fix the looming problem of an unrepayable federal debt, and it could generate “quantitative easing for the people,” which could be used to fund infrastructure, low-interest loans to cities and states, and other public services.

“ …The next time the megabanks collapse, rather than bailing them out they could be nationalized ….

“ … [M]assive central bank interventions that were thought to be impossible in the 20th century are now being implemented in the 21st, and they are being done by independent central banks controlled by an international banking cartel. It is time to curb central bank independence. If their powerful tools are going to be put to work, it should be in the service of the public and the economy.”

“Central Banks have gone Rogue, Putting Us All at Risk,” Ellen Brown, webofdebt.com, via LeMetrepoleCafe.com, 09/15/2018

So how are we, explicitly, at risk.

1)   As Brown points out Central Bank “investing” in Equities Markets not only destroys their genuine Market Status, but also diminishes Investor/Citizen Control over the own economies/government/finances.

2)   But The Risk that is not explicitly pointed out is that these Multi-Trillion $ Equities “Investments” increase the probability of Hyperinflation because of all the “Hot Fiat Money” introduced into the system.

Forecasts

Note: for more Detailed Analysis, see our Forecasts for Weeks Ending September 7 and 14.

U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates

The $US is down a bit on a “surprise” lower CPI Number, bouncing around 94.50 basis USDX.

But inflation is aborning with the US 10-Year Yield now up bouncing up over 3%ish, which is a harbinger of what is coming — Hyperinflation.

And Volatility is rising on Currency War (CW) Realities and Trade WAR (TW) fears.

Here’s why:

As we noted recently, rates are slowly rising worldwide and Liquidity (The Big L) is drying up from rising rates and Q.T. (Quantitative Tightening). Long-term, The $US is likely Toast because, inter alia, the U.S. has unpayable Debt. And the $US has increasing competition as the World’s Reserve Currency from

  • IMF-SDRs and
  • Gold-Backed Chinese Yuan
  • And now the Euro, according to Herr Juncker.

And FYI, we fully expect The Private For-Profit Fed to raise rates again to increase the profits of its Mega-Bank Owners. Indeed, The Fed does not care about Inflation or the Well-Being of U.S. Citizens, but only of its Mega-Bank Owners.

Equities

Trade War Fears, a Currency War, Tech Shakeout and rising Inflation aborning are all roiling the Markets. Even Apple is concerned, admitting that the Smart Phone Market is close to Saturation.

And Facebook and Google and Twitter are about to be, and  should be, heavily regulated, since they are content censors and Public Utilities. They use the publicly funded Internet as their own political Soapbox.

Our earlier forecast “Crash Legs could begin at any time” is beginning to be fulfilled.

Short-term we are now seeing what is likely the Blow-Off Top for the Equities Markets, perhaps, indeed to new all-time Highs.

And 12 Hindenberg Omen’s are “on the Clock”. See September 7th’s detailed analysis.

The Activation of just one Trigger could send the Dow 2,000 points lower, the NASDAQ 1000 point lower, and they S&P 200 points lower.

Gold and Silver

With the exception of last week’s lower than anticipated headline CPI Number and consequent  $US slight weakness, which has continued this week, has helped the Precious Metals pop up, a stronger U.S. $ in recent weeks (recently up over 95 basis USDX) plus ongoing EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE Cartel Price Suppression has forced the Precious Metals lower over the last few months.

WHY the Intensity? The Cartel is preparing for what they know is coming — Crashes in several Key Sectors, and that will cause a Rush to the Precious Metals. Thus, The Cartel wants that Launch UP to start from a lower Base!

Thus, the recent relatively low prices will not last.

Notice that the Precious Metals bounces (e.g., this week) are increasingly strong and The Cartel’s suppressions increasingly strong—it smells like The Cartel’s Desperation is increasing, because they know that one day soon, they will be unable to contain the bounce. In other words, the increasing Precious Metals VIX  and much higher Precious Metals Derivatives Totals (see below) tells us that that Breakout is coming ever closer.

GATA has raised another profoundly important question about the gold market in Monetary metals derivatives soar, so who ARE those guys?

“The quarterly report from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showing bank trading revenue …contains two remarkable graphs showing the increase in the notional value of gold and precious metals derivatives held by “U.S. commercial banks and savings associations” quarter by quarter since 2001.

“These derivatives, according to the charts, have increased for ‘foreign exchange and gold’ from about $4 trillion at the end of 2001 to nearly $40 trillion in the quarter ending in July this year, and for other precious metals from about $2.5 billion at the end of 2001 to nearly $50 billion in the quarter ended in July this year…

“The powerful implication here is that the trading of futures market derivatives through intermediaries, particularly JPMorganChase & Co., is the mechanism by which the U.S. government is suppressing commodity prices…

“Why the gold (and FX) and the ‘other precious metals’ (presumably silver) derivatives have increased 10-fold and 20-fold in 17 years is certainly a legitimate question. Mine supply has of course not risen anything like this amount.”

The JBGJ report on the dramatic $ Multi-Trillion increase in Precious Metals Derivatives indicates the increasing intensity of the suppression.

But decreasing (relative to Demand) Mine supply of Gold and Silver and the fact that Russia, China, and India are all taking Delivery of Physical indicate that Gold and Silver could launch at any time now, and we expect will indeed launch soon. In our view, Silver has the most upside.

In that connection, we recommend you consider our DHPS Precious Metals Royalty play BUY RECO for last week ¾ it has great gain potential and yield.

Crude Oil & Copper & Other Commodities

Recent $US Strength and U.S. Jawboning of OPEC had caused WTI to drop to $65ish and Copper to below $3ish; but the prospect of inflation, above-ground drawdowns and more recent $US Weakness has caused Oil to bounce back toward $70.

Indeed, Crude may continue to spike up because of any one or more of the following could occur.

  1. Multiple Tensions in the Mideast and Iranian and Venezuelan Chaos demonstrate the actual and potential Threats to the Oil Supply Market.
  2. Thus, the increasing Political Instability in Iran and Venezuela is Threatening Supply
  3. A “Risk On” appetite is returning to the Markets (but likely not to last long) and
  4. The OPEC production quotas not only holding but expected to be continued and the demand for Crude has increased and therefore, the Price. Thus, Higher Crude Prices (approaching $75ish for WTI) recently also resulted from several Factors:
    • The IEA indicated Demand is rising faster than anticipated and unanticipated above-ground supply drawdown, and
    • Very Real Inflation Expectations, perhaps the most important Driver!
    • Anticipation of Greater Economic Growth resulting from the Tax Reform Also resulting in higher Near-Term Prices
  5. Several straight weeks of declining above ground inventories and especially now,
  6. And above all, until recently, the Crude Oil Price was up because it “smells” inflation coming! Energy is a good Inflation Hedge.
  7. And Saudi Arabia said it would be happy to see $80 Crude

Bottom line: Oil Supplies are Tight World Wide.

Therefore, WTI Crude has most recently spiked up over $74. And the long-term Crude Price Trend is up from here (subject to further intermittent dips on bad Economic News and Equities Markets Crash Legs) especially when The Fed starts printing Money from Helicopters in response to an Equities Crash Leg.

However, the U.S., not Saudi Arabia, is now the swing producer because fracking becomes quite profitable when WTI is over $60. And, Many Investors still buy the Economic Recovery Narrative (false in our view), but that view will weaken as the Equities Multiple-Crash Scenario unfolds. Indeed, the weakening Sentiment has already begun among sophisticated Investors.

As well, for the aforementioned and other reasons we lay out elsewhere in this Alert, Crude Oil (and Copper) are likely not destined to remain at these still relatively high price levels for more than a few months, i.e., near $70 (and near $3) forever.

However, all that said, recent ample supply and $US weakness has once again driven prices to $70ish.

They too will crash again temporarily as Equities move into another Crash Leg (see Equities for forecast Timing) and will revive again only on the printing of Helicopter Money likely to begin by Q4 of 2018, i.e., on an increasingly Devalued U.S. Dollar.

Then likely by Q1 or Q2 of 2019, as we get Money from Helicopters, Oil (and Copper) should reverse and move much higher (perhaps to $80ish) (and well over $3 for Copper) as we move into The Inflation Phase, via (we expect) Fed-printed Helicopter Money. Indeed, the Inflation-generated move back up could come earlier than Q1 2019.

In sum, both Crude and Copper are likely to Fall when the recent Mainstream Media Spin that the Economy is Recovering ends with a Bang when the Bond and Equities Crash Legs and (highly likely) concatenating Credit Default Event/s (probably Beginning in Energy or Tech or Small Caps) delegitimize that Spin.

But then, prices of Crude and Copper are likely to spike Upward Again as The Fed (et al) we forecast will engage in another round of QE probably beginning in late 2018 or early 2019.

Important Conclusion — Medium- to Long-Term, Energy and The Energy Infrastructure and Key Commodities are The Bull Sectors just as Silver is The BULL Asset.

Therefore, in the mid- to long-term, we expect increasing Inflation will cause Crude and Copper & Other Commodities (e.g., Silver and Uranium and Key Ag  and Rare Earth Metals Products Prices to continue to Trend Up (See our recent Buy Recommendations) until a mega-event crash trigger occurs and a visibly Stagnant economy suppresses prices.

CAVEAT: In the very long run, (i.e., more than three years out) Crude is likely to spike up even higher again, not merely because The Fed, et al, print money from helicopters, but also because the potential reserves/production from fracked wells has been wildly exaggerated. Fact: Horizontally Fracked wells Depletion Rates are much higher than advertised, thus reserves are much lower than advertised.

Hyper-Stagflation and displacement of the $US as WRC likely are coming within the next couple of years.

See our High Potential Profit & Protective Bull Portfolio.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
September 18, 2018

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2018 Update” on the ‘Two Free Reports’ page at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Consider also Deepcaster’s “December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel‘s Dark Interventions – III.” Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at Deepcaster LLC (deepcaster.com) have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported September 13, 2018
2.70%     /    10.48%

U.S. Unemployment reported September 7, 2018
3.85%     /     21.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported August 31, 2018 (Q2)
2.89%        /     -1.35%

U.S. M3 reported September 6th, 2018 (Month of August 2018, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 3.97% (e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.937 Trillion!)


ALERT

Week Ending September 14, 2018

$8 BUY RECO w Great Yield/Gain Prospects; Forecasts: US$/€, U.S. T-Notes, T-Bonds, & Interest Rates; Equities; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper & Other Commodities

$8 BUY RECO in Sector with Great Yield and Explosive Gain Potential. And Fed to support its Mega Bank Owners. See our Forecasts.

Forecasts

Note: for Detailed Analysis, see our Forecasts for Week Ending September 7.

U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates

The $US is down a bit on a “surprise” lower CPI Number, bouncing around 94.50 basis USDX.

But inflation is aborning with the US 10-Year Yield now up approaching 3%ish, is a harbinger of what is coming.

And Volatility is rising on Currency War (CW) Realities and Trade WAR (TW) fears.

Here’s why:

As we noted recently, rates are slowly rising worldwide and Liquidity (The Big L) is drying up from rising rates and Q.T. (Quantitative Tightening). Long-term, The $US is likely Toast because, inter alia, the U.S. has unpayable Debt. And the $US has increasing competition as the World’s Reserve Currency from

  • IMF-SDRs and
  • Gold-Backed Chinese Yuan
  • And now the Euro, according to Herr Juncker.

And FYI, we fully expect The Private For-Profit Fed to raise rates this month to increase the profits of its Mega-Bank Owners. Indeed, The Fed does not care about Inflation of the Well-Being of U.S. Citizens, but only the Mega-Bank Owners.

Equities

Trade War Fears, a Currency War and Tech Shakeout aborning are all raising the Markets. Even Apple is concerned, admitting that the Smart Phone Market is close to Saturation.

And Facebook and Google are about to be, and  should be, heavily regulated, since they are content censors and Public Utilities. They use the publically funded Internet as their own political Soapbox.

Our earlier forecast “Crash Legs could begin at any time” is beginning to be fulfilled.

Short-term we are now seeing what is likely the Blow-Off Top for the Equities Markets, perhaps, indeed to new all-time Highs.

And seven Hindenberg Omen’s are “on the Clock”. See last week’s detailed analysis (below).

Gold and Silver

With the exception of this week’s lower than anticipated headline CPI Number and consequent  $US slight weakness which helped the Precious Metals pop up, a stronger U.S. $ recently (recently up over 95 basis USDX) plus ongoing EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE Cartel Price Suppression has forced the Precious Metals lower over the last few weeks.

WHY the Intensity? The Cartel is preparing for what they know is coming — Crashes in several Key Sectors, and that will cause a Rush to the Precious Metals. Thus, The Cartel wants that Launch UP to start from a lower Base!

Thus, the recent relatively low prices will not last.

Notice that the Precious Metals bounces are increasingly strong and The Cartel’s suppressions increasingly strong—it smells like The Cartel’s Desperation is increasing, because they know that one day soon, they will be unable to contain the bounce. In other words, the increasing Precious Metals VIX  and much higher Precious Metals Derivatives Totals (see below) tells us that that Breakout is coming ever closer.

GATA has raised another profoundly important question about the gold market in Monetary metals derivatives soar, so who ARE those guys?

“The quarterly report from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency showing bank trading revenue …contains two remarkable graphs showing the increase in the notional value of gold and precious metals derivatives held by “U.S. commercial banks and savings associations” quarter by quarter since 2001.

“These derivatives, according to the charts, have increased for ‘foreign exchange and gold’ from about $4 trillion at the end of 2001 to nearly $40 trillion in the quarter ending in July this year, and for other precious metals from about $2.5 billion at the end of 2001 to nearly $50 billion in the quarter ended in July this year…

“The powerful implication here is that the trading of futures market derivatives through intermediaries, particularly JPMorganChase & Co., is the mechanism by which the U.S. government is suppressing commodity prices…

“Why the gold (and FX) and the ‘other precious metals’ (presumably silver) derivatives have increased 10-fold and 20-fold in 17 years is certainly a legitimate question. Mine supply has of course not risen anything like this amount.”

The JBGJ report on the dramatic $ Multi-Trillion increase in Precious Metals Derivatives indicates the increasing intensity of the suppression.

But decreasing (relative to Demand) Mine supply of Gold and Silver and the fact that Russia, China, and India are all taking Delivery of Physical indicate that Gold and Silver could launch at any time now, and we expect will indeed launch soon.

In that connection, we recommend you consider our DHPS Precious Metals Royalty play BUY RECO for this week — it has great gain potential and yield.

DHPS Speculators Buy Recommendation

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (OR) acquires and manages precious metal and other royalties, streams, and similar interests in Canada and internationally. Its assets include the 5% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on the Canadian Malartic mine; the 2.0% to 3.5% NSR royalty on the Eleonore mine; a 9.6% diamond stream on the Renard diamond mine; a 4% gold and silver stream on the Brucejack gold and silver mine; and a silver stream on the Gibraltar mine, all located in Canada. The company also has a 100% silver stream on the Mantos Blancos copper mine in Chile. It holds a portfolio of approximately 130 royalties, streams, and precious metal offtakes in North America; and owns rights to participate in future royalty/stream financings on various projects primarily in Canada. Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

Recommendation to Consider

Buy OR at $8 per share or better

See our September 7 Alert for a Full Precious Metals Analysis.

Crude Oil & Copper & Other Commodities

Recent $US Strength and U.S. Jawboning of OPEC had caused WTI to drop to $65ish and Copper to below $3ish; but the prospect of inflation, above-ground drawdowns and recent $US Weakness has caused Oil to bounce back toward $70.

Indeed, Crude may continue to spike up because of any one or more of the following could occur.

  1. Multiple Tensions in the Mideast and Iranian and Venezuelan Chaos demonstrate the actual and potential Threats to the Oil Supply Market.
  2. Thus, the increasing Political Instability in Iran and Venezuela is Threatening Supply
  3. A “Risk On” appetite is returning to the Markets (but likely not to last long) and
  4. The OPEC production quotas not only holding but expected to be continued and the demand for Crude has increased and therefore, the Price. Thus, Higher Crude Prices (approaching $75ish for WTI) recently also resulted from several Factors:
    • The IEA indicated Demand is rising faster than anticipated and unanticipated above-ground supply drawdown, and
    • Very Real Inflation Expectations, perhaps the most important Driver!
    • Anticipation of Greater Economic Growth resulting from the Tax Reform Also resulting in higher Near-Term Prices
  5. Several straight weeks of declining above ground inventories and especially now.
  6. And above all, until recently, the Crude Oil Price was up because it “smells” inflation coming! Energy is a good Inflation Hedge.

Bottom line: Oil Supplies are Tight World Wide.

Therefore, WTI Crude has most recently spiked up over $74. And the long-term Crude Price Trend is up from here (subject to further intermittent dips on bad Economic News and Equities Markets Crash Legs) especially when The Fed starts printing Money from Helicopters in response to an Equities Crash Leg.

However, the U.S., not Saudi Arabia, is now the swing producer because fracking becomes quite profitable when WTI is over $60. And, Many Investors still buy the Economic Recovery Narrative (false in our view), but that view will weaken as the Equities Multiple-Crash Scenario unfolds. Indeed, the weakening Sentiment has already begun among sophisticated Investors.

As well, for the aforementioned and other reasons we lay out elsewhere in this Alert, Crude Oil (and Copper) are likely not destined to remain at these still relatively high price levels for more than a few months, i.e., near $70 (and near $3) forever.

However, all that said, recent ample supply has once again driven prices into the mid to high $60s.

They too will crash again temporarily as Equities move into another Crash Leg (see Equities for forecast Timing) and will revive again only on the printing of Helicopter Money likely to begin by Q4 of 2018, i.e., on an increasingly Devalued U.S. Dollar.

Then likely by Q1 or Q2 of 2019, as we get Money from Helicopters, Oil (and Copper) should reverse and move much higher (perhaps to $80ish) (and well over $3 for Copper) as we move into The Inflation Phase, via (we expect) Fed-printed Helicopter Money. Indeed, the Inflation-generated move back up could come earlier than Q1 2019.

In sum, both Crude and Copper are likely to Fall when the recent Mainstream Media Spin that the Economy is Recovering ends with a Bang when the Bond and Equities Crash Legs and (highly likely) concatenating Credit Default Event/s (probably Beginning in Energy or Tech or Small Caps) delegitimize that Spin.

But then, prices of Crude and Copper are likely to spike Upward Again as The Fed (et al) we forecast will engage in another round of QE probably beginning in late 2018 or early 2019.

Important Conclusion — Medium- to Long-Term, Energy and The Energy Infrastructure and Key Commodities are The Bull Sectors just as Silver is The BULL Asset.

Therefore, in the mid- to long-term, we expect increasing Inflation will cause Crude and Copper & Other Commodities (e.g., Silver and Uranium and Key Ag  and Rare Earth Metals Products Prices to continue to Trend Up (See our recent Buy Recommendations) until a mega-event crash trigger occurs and a visibly Stagnant economy suppresses prices.

CAVEAT: In the very long run, (i.e., more than three years out) Crude is likely to spike up even higher again, not merely because The Fed, et al, print money from helicopters, but also because the potential reserves/production from fracked wells has been wildly exaggerated. Fact: Horizontally Fracked wells Depletion Rates are much higher than advertised, thus reserves are much lower than advertised.

Hyper-Stagflation and displacement of the $US as WRC likely are coming within the next couple of years.

See our High Potential Profit & Protective Bull Portfolio.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
September 13, 2018

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2018 Update” on the ‘Two Free Reports’ page at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Consider also Deepcaster’s “December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel‘s Dark Interventions – III.” Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at Deepcaster LLC (deepcaster.com) have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported August 10, 2018
2.95%     /    10.75%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 10, 2018
3.87%     /     21.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported August 31, 2018 (Q2)
2.89%        /     -1.35%

U.S. M3 reported August 2nd, 2018 (Month of July 2018, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.49% (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.905 Trillion!)


ALERT

Week Ending September 7, 2018

Crunch Time! RECOS to Profit and Protect; Forecasts: US$/€, U.S. T-Notes, T-Bonds, & Interest Rates; Equities; Gold & Silver; Crude Oil & Copper & Other Commodities

C.W. and T.W. aborning provide Opportunities to Greatly Profit and Protect for the Well-Positioned and Great Losses for those Not Positioned.

See Deepcaster’s Forecasts and Recos.

Forecasts

U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates

The $US is down a bit, bouncing around 95 basis USDX.

But inflation is aborning with the US 10-Year Yield now up to 2.9%ish is a harbinger of what is coming.

And Volatility is rising on Currency War (CW) Realities and Trade WAR (TW) fears.

Here’s why:

As we noted recently, rates are slowly rising worldwide and Liquidity (The Big L) is drying up from rising rates and Q.T. (Quantitative Tightening). Long-term, The $US is likely Toast because, inter alia, the U.S. has unpayable Debt.

Perhaps the Main Reason is The Big D — Debt.

THE BID D is $US Denominated DEBT. The USA alone is over $21 Trillion in Debt which is now projected to increase at $1.2 Trillion per Year.

And World-wide, Sovereigns, Businesses and Individuals Carry at least $248 Trillion in Debt. And this number is increasing. Bottom Line: This Debt can never be repaid given any reasonable projections of Economic Growth.

However, given the foregoing, alas, the $US Strength which we have seen recently, with the USDX bouncing up against 95, cannot last more than a very few months at most.

Short-term, we expect U.S. Treasuries increasingly to be treated as the “Got To” Safe Haven, especially since The Cartel has successfully kept Gold and Silver from rising in spite of all the Triggers.

Specifically, we expect the U.S. 10-Year to strengthen in the next few weeks, bringing the yield down to 2.5% perhaps below that.

After Those Treasuries Top, we expect them to reverse The Spike with the 10-Year yield surging to 3.5% or above with the $US weakening as the Unpayable Debt situation becomes more and more obvious.

Result: Indeed, the $US must be dramatically DEVALUED and The Spike will reverse via Massive Printing from The Federal Reserve. Result: Hyperinflation (The Big H) or more accurately, Stagflation, because the Inflation will be coupled with a stagnant economy (cf. our earlier Alerts).

Consequently, we are already seeing Harbingers of the Materializing of The Great Threat—Massive Defaults of the over-leveraged. Sovereigns, Businesses & Individuals over-leveraged mainly because The private for-profit Fed-led Cartel pushed rates down and kept rates artificially low for too long. But when The Great Threat materializes this will be The Trigger for the formally announced and soon to be attempted replacement of the US$ with Gold-linked IMF SDRs as World Reserve Currency.

As backdrop consider that the U.S. Fed and ECB alone hold $9 Trillion in Toxic Sovereign Bonds, Bonds which can never be “sold” because that would guarantee a Massive Market Crash, due inter alia to liquidity being sucked from the system.

The Markets “smell” inflation which we have earlier forecast. And that is one Harbinger of the Materializing of The Great Threat—Massive Defaults of the over-leveraged. But they also smell recession of which the flattening yield curve is also a Harbinger.

And the Equities and Credit Bubbles (manufactured by The Private for-Profit Fed and Allies) therefore still loom and threaten the strength of the $US and U.S. Treasuries. Similar Bubbles exist in the EU, China and Japan.

In sum, though short-term, we expect $US and US Treasuries to spike up, long-term they are still in a Down Trend which we forecast to continue mid- to long-term prior to the $US its probable Displacement as World Reserve Currency.

As well, The Fed and others have started to withdraw stimulus by engaging in QT—Quantitative Tightening. QT plus Interest Rate Increases will surely eventually substantially deflate Bubble Assets like Stocks. And, indeed, with the U.S. 10-Year yield recently hitting 3.1%, the Equities and Bond Price Deflation Trends have already begun.

Indeed, all the aforementioned catalysts for recent moves in The Bond Market and the $US Now reflect what we have been forecasting for months, that Stagflation is coming; that is, a stagnant economy with inflation. Indeed, it will affect all Economies; in a phrases we will likely have Mega G.S., i.e., Mega Global Stagflation which will likely usher in IMF SDRs.

Sovereigns, Businesses and Consumers are all too overleveraged (and we reiterate, Stagflation is likely coming). But these Mega-Trends have already created Profit Opportunities — see our recent Bull Sector and other Buy Recommendations — and will continue to do so.

In sum, the aforementioned Debtors have all become too over-leveraged mainly because The Private, For-Profit Fed and other Major Central banks have kept Rates too low for too long and thereby artificially elevated Equities and other Financial Assets to benefit the Mega-bankers and Wall Street, i.e., to benefit The Globalist Deep State.

And, indeed, with the prospect of U.S. Debt increasing by $1Trillion or more annually, the Bond Market’s Debt Ceiling Alarm Bell is already Ringing Loudly. (See one easy Action which would cut the U.S. Debt increase nearly in half (i.e., by over half a Trillion $s in a decade) at CarryingCapacity.org.) Key Conclusion: When Debt Defaults mushroom, which they will some time in the coming months, that will Trigger Key Sector Crashes and usher in IMF SDRs.

Indeed, when the U.S. 10-Year yield was trading around 2.5% SocGen intimated that a 100 basis point rise in interest rates (i.e., to 3.5%) could cause 20% of all overleveraged S&P Companies to default … and we are already nearly half way there.

Considered all together, this impending concatenating Debt Default Disaster is The Greatest Threat of which we continue to speak, and if it is as serious as we think it May be, we think a Debt Jubilee will eventually be demanded by Business and the Citizenry, as it already is being demanded by the new populist Government in Italy.

Thus, we expect Real Yields will continue their rising trends (because of Real Inflation) to be interrupted intermittently by one or more Equities Crash Legs.

Global Stagflation here we come, as we have warned.

And all the aforementioned considered together, have launched the Great Rotation — (see Equities) into Two Bull Sectors with Great Gain Prospects.

Equities

Trade War Fears, a Currency War and Tech Shakeout aborning are all raising the Markets. Even Apple is concerned, admitting that the Smart Phone Market is close to Saturation.

And Facebook and Google are about to be, and  should be, heavily regulated, since they are content censors. They use the publicly funded Internet as their own political Soapbox.

Our earlier forecast “Crash Legs could begin at any time” is beginning to be fulfilled.

Short-term we are now seeing what is likely the Blow-Off Top for the Equities Markets, perhaps, indeed to new all-time Highs.

Already one sees the Movement out of the Weaker FAANG and other Big Tech (but not Apple or Google) stocks just beginning, as we earlier forecast (we recommended Investors Exit Facebook weeks ago). And, eventually (likely when The Spike is nearly complete), into Gold and Silver once they blow through ongoing Cartel Price Suppression.

Thus, Equities in General are Topping (as reflected in their recent Sideways Action) as we earlier forecast.

Despite the intermittent bounces, the Medium-Term Trend remains down.

Therefore, short-term, if Earnings and Geopolitics improve (which we think possible but not certain), Equities could bound again to the Top of the Declining Trend Line, or even above it which would signal a longer rally, albeit short-term, i.e., weeks could stretch into a few months, even to early 2019.

Most likely, Crash Legs could begin any time, as we earlier forecast—there are simply too many Triggers out there and too much economic weakness. Expect to see Equities down-legs/Crash Legs periodically going forward. Make no mistake, medium-term, an Equities crash Trend has begun. The Crash Legs will be interrupted by bounces off Support.

Indeed, Fundamentals and Technicals both “Agree” that, in the mid- to long-term, we are entering a period of Major Moves Down.

And individual “Market Leaders” began to Fall because their Internals do not support their Inflated PEs. Indeed, some, like Facebook and Oracle and Tesla have long been overvalued and Deepcaster earlier correctly forecast their Fall which has only just begun.

And there are other Indications that Equities area topping:

  • Several Hindenburg Omens have recently been on the clock.
  • The Real Numbers, per Shadowstats, indicate that the Economy, and especially consumer liquidity, is much weaker than the Official (Bogus) Numbers
  • Breadth is not following the indices which have thus far been held up by the Mega-Caps
  • Bounces are on low volume!
  • Geopolitics — The Destroy Trump far-Left Faction is unrelenting

In sum, Equities are Topping and it appears the first of Multiple Crash Legs has occurred, per John Williams, “the outlook for U.S. Economic and Financial Activity Continues to Darken.”

For Morgan Stanley analysis of why we are headed into a downturn and Deepcaster’s Constructive Critique (which comes to the same conclusion), see our recent Alerts.

We just wait for additional Major Trigger/s, including The Great Trigger for Major Movers, e.g., a Debt Default “Explosion.”

Gold and Silver

With the exception of this week’s $US slight weakness which helped the Precious Metals pop up, a stronger U.S. $ recently (recently up over 95 basis USDX) plus ongoing EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE Cartel Price Suppression has forced the Precious Metals lower over the last few weeks.

WHY the Intensity? The Cartel is preparing for what they know is coming — Crashes in several Key Sectors, and that will cause a Rush to the Precious Metals. Thus, The Cartel wants that Launch UP to start from a lower Base!

Thus, the recent relatively low prices will not last.

Notice that the Precious Metals bounces are increasingly strong and The Cartel’s suppressions increasingly strong—it smells like The Cartel’s Desperation is increasing, because they know that one day soon, they will be unable to contain the bounce. In other words, the increasing Precious Metals VIX tells us that that Breakout is coming ever closer.

However, given that the Gold Price is now rigged, our attention has turned to other Mega Moves UP—to come in Key Sector Commodities (see our recent Buy Recos) and, as we earlier correctly forecast, and Silver in Particular is the next we expect to blow sky-high? Consider

  • China making deals for Commodities (including Oil) in Yuan, not $US.
  • Increasing Real Inflation from Money Printing and Other Reasons
  • Long Depressed Prices for most Commodities
  • “Paper” Asset Bubbles (including Crypto-Currencies — a 21st Century “Tulip Mania”) are (and will continue) bursting and the Flight to safety will eventually be to Real Hard Assets
  • Political Risks to Markets
  • And especially, many over-leveraged companies, many of which can not pay their Debts as Rates rise.

And, as the aforementioned Triggers play out, it will cause both metal prices to intermittently rocket up, especially silver.

Indeed, as we forecast many days ago, there is one Precious Metal which is especially well-positioned to “Rocket Launch” especially powerfully on these Triggers—Silver! Silver is our #1 Asset for Protection and Profit! See our recent Alerts for the analysis.

And, when yet another one of THE BIG TRIGGERS is activated, e.g., China increasingly Devalues the Yuan (whichever comes first) and/or interest rates shoot up again and/or Bitcoin et al suffer another Crash leg and/or Mideast Situations Explode and/or The Credit Market Crashes (most likely at some point), and/or the $US Falls again, watch the Precious Metals soar back up.

And, we reiterate, given the flow of Physical from West to East, The Cartel is fighting a losing battle. Indeed, we still expect to see Gold at or over $1400 and Silver at or over $20 by end of 2018, and much higher after that. And the Gold Share indices are likely to double in the next four to six months.

In sum, we forecast Commodities and these Precious Metals (and especially Silver) will enjoy a Mega-Spike up Beginning in late 2018 or early 2019, as The Big Treasuries Spike reverses.

See our recent Silver Buy Recommendation.

Crude Oil & Copper & Other Commodities

Recent $US Strength and U.S. Jawboning of OPEC had caused WTI to drop to $65ish and Copper to below $3ish but the prospect of inflation, above-ground drawdowns and recent $US Weakness has caused Oil to bounce back toward $70.

Indeed, Crude may continue to spike up because of any one or more of the following could occur.

  1. Multiple Tensions in the Mideast and Iranian and Venezuelan Chaos demonstrate the actual and potential Threats to the Oil Supply Market.
  2. Thus, the increasing Political Instability in Iran and Venezuela is Threatening Supply
  3. A “Risk On” appetite is returning to the Markets (but likely not to last long) and
  4. The OPEC production quotas not only holding but expected to be continued and the demand for Crude has increased and therefore, the Price. Thus, Higher Crude Prices (approaching $75ish for WTI) recently also resulted from several Factors:
    • The IEA indicated Demand is rising faster than anticipated and unanticipated above-ground supply drawdown, and
    • Very Real Inflation Expectations, perhaps the most important Driver!
    • Anticipation of Greater Economic Growth resulting from the Tax Reform Also resulting in higher Near-Term Prices
  5. Several straight weeks of declining above ground inventories and especially now,
  6. And above all, until recently, the Crude Oil Price was up because it “smells” inflation coming! Energy is a good Inflation Hedge. And Peace or War and a Supply disruption in the Mideast.

Bottom line: Oil Supplies are Tight World Wide.

Therefore, WTI Crude has most recently spiked up over $74. And the long-term Crude Price Trend is up from here (subject to further intermittent dips on bad Economic News and Equities Markets Crash Legs) especially when The Fed starts printing Money from Helicopters in response to an Equities Crash Leg.

However, the U.S., not Saudi Arabia, is now the swing producer because fracking becomes quite profitable when WTI is over $60. And, Many Investors still buy the Economic Recovery Narrative (false in our view), but that view will weaken as the Equities Multiple-Crash Scenario unfolds. Indeed, the weakening Sentiment has already begun among sophisticated Investors.

As well, for the aforementioned and other reasons we lay out elsewhere in this Alert, Crude Oil (and Copper) are likely not destined to remain at these still relatively high price levels for more than a few months, i.e., near $70 (and near $3) forever.

However, all that said, recent ample supply has once again driven prices into the mid to high $60s.

They too will crash again temporarily as Equities move into another Crash Leg (see Equities for forecast Timing) and will revive again only on the printing of Helicopter Money likely to begin by Q4 of 2018, i.e., on an increasingly Devalued U.S. Dollar.

Then likely by Q1 or Q2 of 2019, as we get Money from Helicopters, Oil (and Copper) should reverse and move much higher (perhaps to $80ish) (and well over $3 for Copper) as we move into The Inflation Phase, via (we expect) Fed-printed Helicopter Money. Indeed, the Inflation-generated move back up could come earlier than Q1 2019.

In sum, both Crude and Copper are likely to Fall when the recent Mainstream Media Spin that the Economy is Recovering ends with a Bang when the Bond and Equities Crash Legs and (highly likely) concatenating Credit Default Event/s (probably Beginning in Energy or Tech or Small Caps) delegitimize that Spin.

But then, prices of Crude and Copper are likely to spike Upward Again as The Fed (et al) we forecast will engage in another round of QE probably beginning in late 2018 or early 2019.

Important Conclusion — Medium- to Long-Term, Energy and The Energy Infrastructure and Key Commodities are The Bull Sectors just as Silver is The BULL Asset.

Therefore, in the mid- to long-term, we expect increasing Inflation will cause Crude and Copper & Other Commodities (e.g., Silver and Uranium and Key Ag  and Rare Earth Metals Products Prices to continue to Trend Up (See our recent Buy Recommendations) until a mega-event crash trigger occurs and a visibly Stagnant economy suppresses prices.

CAVEAT: In the very long run, (i.e., more than three years out) Crude is likely to spike up even higher again, not merely because The Fed, et al, print money from helicopters, but also because the potential reserves/production from fracked wells has been wildly exaggerated. Fact: Horizontally Fracked wells Depletion Rates are much higher than advertised, thus reserves are much lower than advertised.

Hyper-Stagflation and displacement of the $US as WRC likely are coming within the next couple of years.

See our High Potential Profit & Protective Bull Portfolio.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
September 6, 2018

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2018 Update” on the ‘Two Free Reports’ page at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Consider also Deepcaster’s “December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel‘s Dark Interventions – III.” Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at Deepcaster LLC (deepcaster.com) have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported August 10, 2018
2.95%     /    10.75%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 10, 2018
3.87%     /     21.3%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported August 31, 2018 (Q2)
2.89%        /     -1.35%

U.S. M3 reported August 2nd, 2018 (Month of July 2018, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.49% (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.905 Trillion!)

 


Alerts for August