Articles by Deepcaster

DEEPCASTER LLC
FORTRESS ASSETS PORTFOLIO | LETTERS, ALERTS & ARTICLES
HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR | HIGH YIELD PORTFOLIO
Preserve & Enhance Wealth
Investment & Geopolitical Intelligence

Surmounting False Markets & Economic News for
Profit and Protection

Savvy Investors know that there are several Key Market and Economic Realities which are NOT reported on by the Mainstream Financial Media, usually because of the Economic Interests of Media Owners and Allies — Key Power Centers of the “Deep State”.

Instead, the “Deep State” Media substitutes False or Unimportant News to avoid reporting on Unpleasant Realities.

So, given that Knowledge is Power and that awareness of these Realities is essential to Wise Investment Decisions, Deepcaster summarizes the most important of these so Investors can Profit and Protect.

1)   There is a Fed-led Globalist Mega-Bank Cartel which has, for years, and still is, suppressing the Prices of Gold and Silver. Their Main Motivation is to Keep Investors in their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies, thereby to maintain their Power. GATA.org has conclusive evidence this has been and is happening but the MSFM will not report on it. Deepcaster has forecast the Timing of the Precious Metals breakout from this ongoing Price Suppression.

2)   The Economic Statistics produced by most Major Nations are Bogus, i.e., they are “Political Numbers”. In China, one must look at, e.g., Power Usage rather than Official Numbers to gauge China’s Economic Health. In the USA, shadowstats.com is the Choice for The Real Numbers. Consider the following CHART.

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported September 13, 2018
2.70%     /    10.48%

U.S. Unemployment reported September 7, 2018
3.85%     /     21.2%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported October 2, 2018 (Q2)
2.87%        /     -1.34%

U.S. M3 reported September 6th, 2018 (Month of August 2018, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 3.97% (e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.937 Trillion!)

3)   The Fed is a Private For-Profit Entity which Acts in the Interest of its Mega-Bank Owners which it purports to Regulate. In this connection, consider how the Actions of Private for-Profit Fed facilitated the Crash of 2008 but enabled its Mega-Bank Owners, Executives and Allies to escape relatively unscathed.

“There is no clearer example of this than the formation and aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. In the years leading up to the crisis, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low. This enabled commercial bankers to originate subprime mortgage loans and investment bankers to package these loans into highly-rated securities that could be sold to institutional investors.

“The commercial bankers made billions of dollars in origination and servicing fees and the investment bankers made billions more in underwriting fees and sales and trading revenue. The $1 trillion total of subprime and other junk mortgages originated by 2007 was dwarfed by the $6 trillion in mortgage derivatives that had been created by the banks out of thin air on the back of the $1 trillion of actual mortgages. These mortgages and derivatives were rated “AAA” in many cases due to the flawed risk models, venality and sheer malfeasance of the major rating agencies such as S&P, Fitch and Moody’s. …

“By the late summer of 2007, the financial dominoes began to fall. Two Bear Stearns mortgage hedge funds collapsed.

“Matters stabilized by December, 2007 as major sovereign wealth funds in Singapore, China, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait were prevailed upon by the Treasury to bail-out major banks including Citibank, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. But the panic reemerged with the failure of Bear Stearns in March 2008, the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in June 2008 and finally the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

“In late September 2008, stock markets crashed, bank runs began and the U.S. was just days away from a sequential collapse of all major banks. Intervention by the Federal Reserve and FDIC, including unlimited deposit insurance, guarantees on all money market funds, massive money printing and multi-trillion dollar currency swaps with the European Central Bank were needed to alleviate the panic. …

“The middle class might have been resigned to their losses if they had seen some trace of accountability on the part of elite bankers, CEOs and regulators. That never happened. …

“In fact, no bank CEOs or senior executives were ever held accountable. They all kept their jobs or moved seamlessly to other financial firms. After two years of increased scrutiny, the bank CEOs resumed the practice of huge bonuses and stock options that rose on a stock market propped up by the Fed. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner secretly communicated with Attorney General Eric Holder at Obama’s Department of Justice with a request to avoid prosecution of bankers because it could hurt confidence and destabilize the financial system. Holder agreed. There were no penalties, prosecutions or terminations among the top bank elites at all.

Meanwhile, the middle class was decimated. They had lost half their savings and many lost their jobs and homes. It was the worst financial and economic setback since the Great Depression. …

“The burden was not equally shared by all. In fact, the burden was placed exclusively on the middle class while the elites escaped completely.” [Emphasis added. Ed.]

“Yes, the Elites Have Rigged the System Against You,” Jim Rickards, 09/28/2018

4)   The Mega Banks and Allies are at the Center of the “Deep State” and are committed Globalists and thus are opposed to Nationalists and Internationalists like President Trump. It is thus not surprising that they push for Regional Governing Entities (e.g., the European Union) and Global Ones — (e.g., the IMF and BIS) and Trade Deals (e.g., the T.P.P.) because they diminish the power of the citizenry of Independent Nations.

5)   One Globalist Deep State Goal is elimination of the $US as World Reserve Currency and its replacement by IMF SDRs and/or (the Deep State’s least favored option) a multi Reserve Currency “System” led by a Gold-backed Chinese Yuan.

6)   An Essential Component of the Globalists’ Program is the encouragement of Mass Immigration into the USA and Europe. This greatly weakens the National Cohesion of these Nations, all to the Benefit of the Globalists. Mass Immigration comes with a tremendous Economic, Environmental and Security Costs to the USA and other Western Nationals. Consider the Negative Impacts on the USA:

LEGAL IMMIGRATION COSTS & CONSEQUENCES
— KEY POINTS from Balance.org and CarryingCapacity.org

—Background:world population increases by about 80 million/year. The population carrying capacity has already been exceeded in many parts of the world, as shown by mass poverty, environmental degradation, and civil strife.

—Pressure to come to USA will only increase—1.6 Million LEGAL Immigrants settle in the U.S.A. every year: Indeed the Average since 2005 is 1.6-1.7 Million Annually

–California e.g. receives 400,000 legal immigrants per year! (U. S. Census)

U.S. Taxpayers Costs—$330 BILLION PER YEAR NET (after subtracting Taxes Immigrants pay) from legal immigration alone, i.e., $3.3 TRILLION prospectively for the next Decade (see full study of NET Costs at carryingcapacity.org) Does NOT include additional Net COSTS to States and Localities = $758 MILLION per Year for Each Congressional District. That is, it costs on average $1000 per person in Federal Taxes per year! 62% of Costs are for “free” (i.e., U.S. Taxpayer-funded) Health Care, & Welfare [The Numbers of Illegal Immigrants are about one fourth that of legal and generate about one-fourth the costs.]

EMPLOYMENT CONSEQUENCES

Professor Computer Science, U.C. Davis, Norm Matloff’s Blog “Vast Majority of H1B and related visa hires are Cheap Labor Hires”, i.e., there are American Workers who would do those jobs.

Confirmed by Williams / CarryingCapacity.org Study—5.9 MILLION AMERICANS DISPLACED from JOBS SINCE 2005 by IMMIGRANT WORKERS. See carryingcapacity.org.

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES

Population Growth usually increases Aggregate GDP but ALWAYS DECREASES PER CAPITA GDP—the True Test of Nations’ Wealth.

Compare Bangladesh and New Zealand with same size GDP BUT Bangladesh has 4 times the Population and thus is much poorer per capita.

The inverse relationship between population growth and individual wealth is also seen in the U.S.  Since the Clinton Administration, an additional 44 million immigrants has arrived in the U.S. and the U.S. per Capita GDP has declined since the Clinton administration [Williams study at carryingcapacity.org]. 

PERSONAL SAFETY ENVIRONMENT 

“Help me, Dad.” Kate Steinle’s dying words impel all of us to redouble our efforts to oppose Sanctuary Cities, Reduce Legal and Stop Illegal Immigration with inter alia a Wall. The Boston Bombers, San Bernardino Shooters and ISIS Truck Driver who ran down Pedestrians and Cyclists in New York City were all Legal Immigrants!

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES
FARMLAND & NATURAL HABITAT LOSS 

“For every Person added to U.S. (or California’s) Population, one Acre of precious Farmland or Natural Habitat is lost to Developed Uses” (e.g., Malls, Urban Sprawl, Tract Housing) (Pimentel et al, Cornell).

SPECIES EXTINCTION

“United States “Top 10 U.S. Endangered Species”, Center for Biological Diversity: As the human population grows we are crowding out, poisoning and eating all other species into extinction. With the world population hitting 7.6 billion, the Center is marking this milestone by releasing a list of species in the United States facing extinction caused by the growing human population. The 10 species represent a range of geography, as well as species diversity—but all are critically threatened by the effects of human population.”

Pressure Intensifying to Migrate to USA!!  BALANCE Has The Solution to Stop Mass Immigration!!!!,” balance.org, 09/15/2018

And a recent study, now consistent with the Trump Administration Legal Immigration Reduction Policy reform, states:

“1.8 Million Immigrants arrived in the USA in 2016 (U.S. Census Bureau) — the Highest Level in U.S. History.

“And between 1.5 and 1.6 Million of these were LEGAL Immigrants. California received over 400,000 LEGAL Immigrants that year and, under current law that flow continues. And there were 702,000 VISA Over-stayers in 2017, and 500,000 Illegal Aliens crossed the Border that year!”

Help Get REAL Immigration Reduction Bill NOW!”, carryingcapacity.org, 08/21/2018

Note: Both Balance.org and CarryingCapacity.org are Non-Profit Pro-Immigrant, Anti-Mass Immigration Organizations.

7)  Market Interventions by The Fed-led Cartel. Various Investment Websites describe the Cartel intervenors in various ways, e.g., “The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets” or “The Plunge Protection Team” or even the “Meanies”.

Book Cover Greatest Market ThreatsHowever described, there is considerable evidence of Cartel Intervention in Recent Years (see Deepcaster’s recently released book, Profiting & Protecting from The Greatest Market Threats, Cartel Interventions, and Fake Economic News, for Details (available on Amazon).

Indeed, there is increasing evidence that Key Central Banks have intensified their buying of Equities (Result: Artificial Equities Markets Propping). For example, it appears the Swiss National Bank has purchased a significant Position in Apple Stock!

But Cartel Interventions are not all-powerful and Neither are Cartel Interventions to Suppress the Prices of Gold and Silver. See Deepcaster’s Forecasts and Buy Recommendations to Profit and Protect from the Interventions and Consequences. See especially Deepcaster’s recent “Bull Sector” and High Yield Portfolio Picks.

8)  The Big D Threat The Big D is Massive Unpayable Debt worldwide.

THE BIG D is $US Denominated DEBT. The USA alone is over $21 Trillion in Debt which is now projected to increase at $1.2 Trillion per Year.

And World-wide, Sovereigns, Businesses and Individuals Carry at least $248 Trillion in Debt (or much more according to some estimates). And this number is increasing. Bottom Line: Most of this Debt can never be repaid given any reasonable projections of Economic Growth.

However, given the foregoing, the $US Strength which we have seen recently, with the USDX bouncing up against 95, cannot last more than a very few more months at most.

Until very recently, U.S. Treasuries were treated as the “Go To” Safe Haven, especially since The Cartel has successfully kept Gold and Silver from rising in spite of all the recent Triggers.

However, given the foregoing Realities, Treasuries have begun to reverse The Spike with the 10-Year yield headed for 3.5% or above with the $US weakening as the Unpayable Debt situation becomes more and more obvious and intractable, all as Deepcaster forecast.

Result: Indeed, the $US will be dramatically DEVALUED and The Spike will eventually reverse via Massive Printing from The Federal Reserve and other Central Banks. Result: Hyperinflation (The Big H) or more accurately, Stagflation, because the Inflation will be coupled with a stagnant economy (cf. our earlier Alerts).

To Profit and Protect from all the aforementioned it is important to 1) be aware of the Realities summarized in this Article and 2) see Deepcaster’s recent Forecasts and Buy Recommendations aimed at Profit and Protection.

Best Regards,

Deepcaster
October 5, 2018


SURMOUNTING THE GREATEST MARKET THREAT
with
Three Key Sector Investments

Of several Threats to the Markets and Economy, there is one which is both Paramount and probable to be realized. But this Great Threat also provides an opportunity for Great Profit and Wealth Protection for those who are aware and prepare.

Consider the “Canary in the Coal Mine,” the $US.

The $US has been bouncing down in the 89-91 Range basis USDX, recently as “Safe Haven” fears of a Mideast War or “Trade War” (largely unjustified) diminished a tad. Nonetheless. the $US share of foreign Currency Reserves held by Central Banks declined for the 4th straight Quarter according to the a recent IMF Report underlining the long-term weakening $US Trend.

This is no surprise to Deepcaster (who forecast it), that is, the U.S. Dollar Weakening Trend is not new. Not too many months ago, it was at 100 basis USDX. Thus, the down trend is continuing, with the $US flirting with 89 basis USDX recently.

In sum, though short-term, the $US may continue to bounce up periodically, it is still in a Down Trend which we forecast to continue mid- to long-term.

Indeed, there are two intensifying Threats to the $US as World Reserve Currency (in addition to The Feds’ QE/QT Policies)—China’s Implementation (aided by Iran, Turkey and Russia) of the (Gold-Backed) Petro-Yuan.

The other Threat is the prospect of increasing U.S. Debt (now at $21Trillion) by a $Trillion or more a year which has highlighted the Reality of increasing Inflation, contrary to Bogus Official Numbers. (See Shadowstats’ Chart, Note 1.)

That Drop in the $US (from 100ish several months ago) shows the Fundamental underlying weakness of the Apparently Healthy Economy and Equities Markets. I.E., they have been high because they have been relying on Easy Money (and consequent leverage Opportunities, but also entailing the increasing Debt Threat) from the Central Banks.

As well, The Fed and others have started to withdraw stimulus by engaging in QT—Quantitative Tightening. QT plus Interest Rate Increases will surely eventually substantially deflate Bubble Assets like Stocks. And, indeed, with the U.S. 10-Year yield approaching 3%, the Equities Price Deflation has already begun.

In addition, the prospect of more money printing (to cover the increasing Interest on Debt) has kept both the $US and U.S. Bonds weak and likely will weaken them further.

Indeed, all the aforementioned catalysts for recent moves in The Bond Market and the $US Now reflect what we have been forecasting, that Stagflation is coming; that is a stagnant economy with inflation.

Thus, Bond prices and the $US have begun to tank as we earlier forecast, mainly because Sovereigns, Businesses and Consumers are all too overleveraged (and we reiterate, stagflation is coming). But these Mega-Trends have already created Profit Opportunities—see Note 2, and will continue to do so.

In sum, the aforementioned Debtors have all become too over-leveraged mainly because The Private, For-Profit Fed and other Major Central banks have kept Rates too low for too long and thereby artificially elevated Equities and other Financial Assets to benefit the Mega-bankers and Wall Street.

And, indeed, with the prospect of U.S. Debt increasing by $1Trillion or more annually, the Bond Market’s Debt Ceiling Alarm Bell is already Ringing Loudly. (See one easy Action which would cut the U.S. Debt increase nearly in half at CarryingCapacity.org.) Key Conclusion: When Debt Defaults mushroom, that will Trigger Key Sector Crashes.

And, already, the resulting “Debt Skepticism” has hit the Corporate Bond Market. “Fewer orders are coming in relative to what’s for sale … Companies that sell notes are paying more interest … investment grade Debt Market is losing steam.” Bloomberg 03/19/2018

And thus, Smart Investors are moving to higher quality Corporate Debt, but some of that prospective protection will eventually be found to be illusory.

Indeed, when the U.S. 10-Year yield was trading around 2.5% SocGen intimated that a 100 basis point rise in interest rates could cause 20% of all overleveraged S&P Companies to default.

Moreover, increasing numbers of convertibles are failing to hit their conversion price, thus increasing default and business failure risk.

Considered all together, this impending concatenating Debt Default Disaster is The Greatest Threat of which we speak.

Surmounting The Threat with Gold and Silver (but only bought in a certain form) and quality Mining Stocks (which moved to a Buy at the end of March) and which are now launching, is one of Three Keys to Profit and Wealth Protection, as we earlier forecast. The only Major but surmountable Impediment to their moving strongly and regularly higher is ongoing intensifying price suppression efforts by the Mega-Bank Cartel (Note 3). But there are plenty of Triggers for continuing the launch higher, and it will continue albeit fitfully.

For example, the prospects of increasing U.S. and other Major Sovereigns’ National Debt and business and consumer Debt Defaults and the North Korean and Mideast Chaos Threats, plus the reported Chinese intention to resist attempts at Trade Fairness plus a Weaker $US, and recently the Equities Market Takedown prospects, plus fears of a Mideast War, all are Triggers which contributed to the ongoing Precious Metals pop up recently and will continue to do so.

However, the launch will not be smooth. In recent weeks, the Euphoria over the anticipation (hope) that a Tax Bill really would increase Economic Growth, plus positive Economic Numbers (notwithstanding the fact some are Bogus), plus Bitcoin et al demand, enabled The Cartel to take down Precious Metals Prices—Gold to the low-$1300s and Silver to the low $16s—recently. And that is why they were able to take them down again, very recently.

[And that is why the Regulators have not clamped down more harshly on Bitcoin and the other Cryptocurrencies—which are not Stores of Value—is because “investments” in Cryptos reduce upward Price Pressure on Gold and Silver.]

As well, Investors were husbanding cash to re-enter the Equities Markets. However, already the beginnings of the Next Equities Crash Leg is causing more Investors to move into Precious Metals as Safe Havens.

But, as we forecast some time ago, there is one Precious Metal which is especially well-positioned to “Rocket Launch” especially powerfully on these Triggers—Silver! And indeed it has. See our recent Alerts for the analysis.

But, though Gold and Silver are the Most Important Profit and Wealth protective Investments going forward, there are at least two others which should be part of every Portfolio.

One is High Yield Equities, but only those in certain Key Sectors. Deepcaster has recently recommended Buying Equities in one Key Sector that have recently yielded 15% and 6%.

To see these High Yielders and to consider the Critically Important third Key Wealth Protective Sector, see Deepcaster’s recent Alerts and Letters.

Above all, stay attuned to signs of intensifying $US Weakness, intensifying Inflation, and increasing Debt Defaults!

Best regards,

Deepcaster
April 20, 2018

Note 1: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported April 11, 2018
2.36%     /    10.12%

U.S. Unemployment reported April 6, 2018
4.07%     /     21.7%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported March 28, 2017
2.58%        /     -1.58%

U.S. M3 reported April 5, 2018 (Month of March 2018, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.41%(e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.57 Trillion!)

Note 2: Deepcaster’s forecast of these Mega-Trends has facilitated the following Recent Profits Taken.

  • 60% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 21 months on March 23, 2018 (i.e., about 44% Annualized)
  • 35% Profit on a High Yield Bond Fund Short after only 34 days on February 6, 2018 (i.e., about 400% Annualized)
  • 50% Profit on a P.M. Streaming Company after only 6.5 years on February 1, 2018 (i.e., about 7.5% Annualized)
  • 115% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 18 months on January 4, 2018 (i.e., about 80% Annualized)

Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2018 Update” on the ‘Two Free Reports’ page at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


DEEPCASTER LLC
FORTRESS ASSETS PORTFOLIO | LETTERS, ALERTS & ARTICLES
HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR | HIGH YIELD PORTFOLIO
Preserve & Enhance Wealth
Investment & Geopolitical Intelligence

Investing for Freedom, Profit & Wealth Protection

Surmounting Impediments to Profit and Wealth Protection in increasingly Volatile Markets requires Understanding and Surmounting Threats to Freedom, though these Threats to Freedom are not always obvious.

Here, we expose several Main Freedom Threats and indicate how to help Surmount them and thus enhance Opportunities for Profit and Wealth Protection, and Privacy.

Globalism vs Nationalism & Internationalism

It should be obvious that the farther away (physically and/or economically) Investors/Citizens are from centers of Economic, Financial and Political Power, the less Freedom and Clout (and often, accurate information) they have to protect their own interests.

The citizens of the European Union are finding this out the hard way as their freedoms are impaired by the Great Regional Bank, the ECB, and a far-away Brussels government which has, for example, allows Millions of Non-European Migrants to threaten Europeans Personal Safety and thus Freedom as well being a Massive NET Burden on EU Nations’ Taxpayers (and re The U.S.A. see NET Costs of Legal Immigration Study at Carrying Capacity Network—$1000 per year NET per U.S. Taxpayer See Note 1). And thus, the ECB and the EU Government dominate formerly relatively independent Nations and National Banks, much to the detriment of their Citizens, shareholders and their Nations.

Globalist And Regionalist Institutions thus tend to elevate their Interest above those of Citizens of Nations they dominate.

The Cloud

Allowing one’s Business or Personal Data to exist on Remote Servers over which one ultimately has little or no Control, creates potential for incalculable harm or loss. Savvy Businesses and Investors increasingly understand this and increasing numbers are using dedicated “Private Clouds” or, better, eschewing Clouds altogether. As the Facebook debacle demonstrates, allowing one’s personal or business data to be put on someone else’s “Cloud” can result in loss of Money and Privacy and Control and thus, Freedom.

In sum, centralized Databases are Vulnerable to Monitoring by Hostile Interests, Rogue Governments and Institutions, Politicization and Authoritarian Government Control (cf China and Massive Hacking [cf Equifax hacking]).

Decentralized Databases within one’s Physically Secure Control are the Answer.

The Social Media Profit Model

Deepcaster has warned about the Threats to Freedom/Privacy/Wealth inherent in the Main Social Media Profit Model: Sell Personal or Business, Private Data for Profit — It is indeed amazing that Facebook and other Social Media users Voluntarily submit their Private Data … so amazing that even Facebook CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, reportedly called Facebook Users “Dumb F****”. (Interview with J. Assange)

In our view, if a Social Media wants to Monetize our private Data it should get our prior permission and be willing to share the profits. Simply allowing Users to Download their Private Data, which Facebook apparently proposes as a “Remedy” to the recent Compromise of 50 Million Users’ Data, is simply an inadequate fix. The Risk Begins when New Users sign on (upload) with their private Data.

We are only surprised that a Facebook/Cambridge Analytica Scandal did not happen earlier. And, by the way, CEO Zuckerberg reportedly recently said Facebook would act against “Illegitimate” Private Data…Sounds like censorship to us.

In sum, the current Social Media Model exposes private Data to others, resulting in Loss of Privacy which often leads to Great Loss of Freedom, Wealth and Much More.

And, by the way, Deepcaster forecast months ago that Facebook and certain other Big Tech names were overvalued and would Crash, and now they are.

War on Cash

We have earlier warned about the Mega Banks/Globalists “War on Cash”. It should be obvious that personal Physical Possession of Cash and Gold and Silver provides much more personal and Economic Freedom and Wealth Preservation and Wealth Mobility, than the Mega-Bank Promoted System where Personal and Business Assets are Stored in some digitized Cloud-Based Server, totally under control of said Mega-Banks. Anyone who has experienced a decline on their Credit Card has a glimpse of a future in which the Mega-Banks War on Cash has been successful. [Each person can, in a small way, help resist the Mega-Banks War on Cash (and protect privacy) by demanding and using paper checks and more Tellers at Banks and eschewing Use of ATMs and Credit and Debit Cards wherever possible.]

The Private for-Profit Fed

Deepcaster, along with other independent Voices, has for years sounded the Alarm Bell about The Private for-Profit Fed.

The Fed’s confiscation of Wealth through reduction of Purchasing Power of the $US via its Money Printing which is in fact a Confiscation of the Purchasing Power of the Money as originally earned. As well, its and control of interest rates and QE/QT policies mainly help the Mega Banks and Wall Street (but only temporarily as Fed Policies have created Vulnerable Asset Price Bubbles). And Fed and Fed-led Cartel (Note 2) Policies have greatly hurt Retirees and Savers, i.e., most of         the Middle Class. See “The Creature from Jekyll Island”, G.E. Griffin.

Historical Note: Seeing The Private for-Profit Fed’s “game” realistically, President J. F. Kennedy authorized the U.S. Treasury to print U.S. Notes in competition with Federal Reserve Notes. He was assassinated six months later.

Attack on Personal Protection Capacity

Part and Parcel of the attack on the ability to personally, physically possess Cash and Gold and Silver is the attack on the U.S. Second Amendment.

Concealed Carry by Background-checked Trained Gun Owners could have prevented/mitigated Mass School Killings by Crazies, and certainly increases personal protection Capacity.

In fact, “Gun Free” Zones are de facto “Free Fire without Consequence” Zones with Tragic Consequences. (See, e.g., More Guns, Less Crime, Dr. John Lott) And having more law-abiding gun owners with concealed carry permits enhances personal safety and reduces crime. And, not insignificantly, it reduces the likelihood of an authoritarian government Takeover as the U.S.A.’s Founders well realized.

Cartel (Note 2) Ongoing Suppression of Gold and Silver Prices

Deepcaster, GATA and other Independent Organizations and Persons have exhaustively documented the Mega-Bank Cartel’s ongoing Suppression of Gold and Silver Prices, and Interventions in other Markets as well (which is why Deepcaster analyzes Interventionals (see Note 3) as well as Fundamentals and Technicals.

Why the Price Suppression? One reason is that personal possession of physical Gold and Silver, enhances Individual Economic Freedom and Wealth Protection and Wealth Mobility and Privacy, and thus reduces the Mega-Bank Cartel’s Power and Wealth.

Indeed, the Mega-Banks and complicit Governments want to force Citizen/Investors to “Store” their Wealth in Paper and Digits on Remote Servers (i.e., to go “cashless”), all the better for Mega-Bank Globalists to enhance their Power and Wealth.

Protecting Profits, Wealth and Freedom and Privacy often go hand in hand.

Best Regards,

Deepcaster
March 30, 2018

Note 1: “NET Cost of LEGAL Immigration Study,” CarryingCapacity.org

According to the above study by noted Economist, John Williams, and sponsored by Carrying Capacity Network, U.S. Taxpayers pay out a NET $330 BILLION ANNUALLY to subsidize LEGAL Immigration. That is, MASS LEGAL Immigration costs U.S. tax-payers $330 BILLION per YEAR AFTER SUBTRACTING ALL TAXES IMMIGRANTS PAY. [And this $330 Billion does NOT include the additional NET amount of Taxes State and Local Taxpayers pay to finance this LEGAL Immigration.]

That is equal to, on average, an annual Tax Burden to Each Congressional District of $758,000,000 ($758 MILLION!) every year to pay for LEGAL Immigration.

Thus the 330 Million Americans pay, on Average, Annual Federal Tax of $1000.00 each to fund the $330 BILLION Annual NET Cost of Legal Immigration. [Approximately 62% of those Costs fund Legal Immigrant Health Care, Health Insurance, and Welfare.]

Note 2: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2018 Update” on the ‘Two Free Reports’ page at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably. And has facilitated Deepcaster’s Recent Profits Taken.

Note 3: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in 2018 in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios* posted under ‘SUBSCRIBER LOGIN

  • 60% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 21 months on March 23, 2018 (i.e., about 44% Annualized)
  • 35% Profit on a High Yield Bond Fund Short after only 34 days on February 6, 2018 (i.e., about 400% Annualized)
  • 50% Profit on a P.M. Streaming Company after only 6.5 years on February 1, 2018 (i.e., about 7.5% Annualized)
  • 115% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 18 months on January 4, 2018 (i.e., about 80% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 16 months on November 29, 2017 (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on a Mobile Media Company after less than 7 months on November 10, 2017 (i.e., about 115% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on a P M Royalty Streaming Company on October 5, 2017 after just 52 months, (i.e., about 20% Annualized)
  • 33% Profit on Independent Holding Company on August 30, 2017 after just 4 months (i.e., about 100% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on P.M. ETF on August 1, 2017 after just 15 months (i.e., about 70% Annualized)

Deepcaster’s Profits Taken in 2017, 2016 and 2015 included such successes as 105%, 90%, and 55% after just 16 days, 110%, 60% 130% and 75%, 65%, 50% in 2 days, 90%, 80% in 6 days, 110% in 3 days, 265% in 57 days, 65% in 2 days.

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.


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TRIGGERS & MARCH TRIGGER IMPENDING!

Major Market Moves and indeed, Trends, often begin with a Triggering Event (like the one coming later this month—See Deepcaster’s Alert posted March 16 for its identity) so it is essential to identify these Triggers in advance for Key Market Sectors and to deploy one’s investments and Trades Accordingly, to Profit and Protect.

And one Very Important Trend which is becoming a Trigger is the accelerating loss of confidence in the $US and resulting spike in yield on U.S. treasuries and increasing inflation.

And this prospect of increasing U.S. Debt ad infinitum has already kept the $US weak, bouncing around 90 basis USDX recently on the prospect of increasing Inflation.

That Drop shows the Fundamental underlying weakness of the Ostensibly Healthy Economy unjustifiably (See Note 1—Shadowstats Chart) and Equities Markets. I.E., they have been and are high because they have been relying on Easy Money from the Central Banks. But The Fed and others have started to withdraw stimulus by engaging in QT—Quantitative Tightening. QT plus Interest Rate Increases will surely deflate Bubble Assets like Stocks, sooner rather than later.

In addition, the prospect of more money printing (to cover the increasing Interest on U.S. Debt and increasing U.S. Debt) has kept both the $US and U.S. Bonds weak and they will weaken them further.

Indeed, we reiterate, recent moves in The Bond Market and the $US Now reflect what we have been forecasting, that Inflation is coming. Thus, Bond prices and the $US have begun to tank as we forecast, mainly because Sovereigns, Businesses and Consumers are all too overleveraged and inflation is coming.

And, indeed, with the prospect of U.S. Debt increasing by at least $1 Trillion annually, the Bond Markets Debt Ceiling Alarm Bell is Ringing Loudly. When Debt Defaults mushroom, that will Trigger Key Sector Crashes. (There is an “easy” Solution which would reduce the U.S. Deficit by one Half a $Trillion in 10 Years—see Carrying Capacity Network).

In sum, the increasing U.S. Debt (already 105% of GDP when President Trump took office!) is one main reason why the U.S. 10-Year and $US continue to weaken.

Important Impending Trigger

The Next Move Down in the 10-Year which drives the yield over 3% (likely later this year) will be a Key Trigger. Be prepared.

To be clear, One Main Cause of these Triggers/Trend is that the U.S. and Businesses are too over-leveraged. And too over-leveraged mainly because The Private, For-Profit Fed and other Major Central banks have kept Rates too low for too long and thereby artificially elevated Equities and other Financial Assets to benefit the Mega-bankers and Wall Street, while hurting Seniors, Savers and Retirees.

But the oncoming Inflation will reverse this process by diminishing the price of Financial Assets and increasing the Prices of certain Real Assets, e.g., especially certain Commodities (which Deepcaster identifies in recent Alerts).

In sum, because of the Worldwide over-leveraging, Defaults will increase, and Equities will soon (i.e., Q2 or Q3) Crash again as we. This will temporarily cause a flight to Ostensible Quality, i.e., back into U.S. Treasuries for a while, so their prices will rise temporarily.

Couple the foregoing with the IMF’s Serious Warning last April that over 20% of U.S. Corporations are at risk of Default if Rates Rise even Modestly (because they are over-leveraged), and you see why Soc. Gen has predicted “This doesn’t end well.” Deepcaster agrees that this world-wide overleveraging (facilitated by The Fed and other Central Banks) is perhaps the Greatest Threat to the Economy and Markets and will soon Trigger a Major Move very sooncatalyzed by the impending late March Deadlinewhich we reveal in the Deepcaster Alert posted March 16.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
March 15, 2018

Note 1: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported March 13, 2018
2.21%     /    9.96%

U.S. Unemployment reported March 9, 2018
4.15%     /     21.8%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported February 28, 2017
2.49%        /     -1.60%

U.S. M3 reported March 8, 2018 (Month of February 2018, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.42%(e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.502 Trillion!)


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Impending Mega-Moves & re
#1 Asset for Profiting and Protecting

Markets were triggered and shocked a few days ago when the yield on the Bellwether U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note shot up over 2.9% which resulted mainly from Fed Chair Powell’s hinting at the possibility of 4 rate hikes this year.

Other soon-to-be-detonated Triggers will have Mega-Consequences for Key Market Sectors but will rocket launch the #1 Asset for Profit and Protection (And soon also The Great Trigger and Consequences.) In order to appreciate the magnitude of what is coming soon it is essential to consider the background.

Deepcaster’s aim here is to provide the analysis for determining the #1 Asset and other assets for Profiting and Protecting from impending moves. Among other things the 10-Year Note Move presaged the intensifying inflation and triggered the record Equities and Bond Market Sell off.

Indeed, there is an even more impactful development than the 10-year move, largely unreported or, which is both Important Cause and Important Consequence of the Note yield move and moves to come.

“In its latest reminder that China is a (for now) happy holder of some $1.2 trillion in US Treasurys, Chinese credit rating agency Dagong downgraded US sovereign Debt ratings from A- to BBB+ overnight, citing ‘deficiencies in US political ecology’ and tax cuts that ‘directly reduce the federal government’s sources of debt repayment’ weakening the base of the government’s debt repayment.

“Oh, and just to make sure the message is heard loud and clear, the ratings, which are now level with those of Peru, Colombia and Turkmenistan on the Beijing-based agency’s scale of creditworthiness, have also been put on a negative outlook.” (!!) 

Via ZeroHedge.com

This Chinese “downgrade” of U.S. Debt (unthinkable years ago) simply emphasizes what Deepcaster has been saying for Months—that ever-increasing U.S. Sovereign Debt (and Business Debt and Consumer Debt) is increasingly unsustainable and is exacerbating the Inflation Trend and is increasingly threatening the $US World Reserve Currency Status.

After all U.S. Debt to GDP was 105% at the beginning of the Trump Presidency and is more now as the U.S. Debt approaches $22 trillion.

Indeed, unfunded pension liabilities exceed $2trillion and student loan debt (90% US government guaranteed) is $1.5trillion. Further the $US World Reserve Currency Status is also threatened by the likely implementation of the IMF’s blockchain based Global Ledger Technology system (GLT), as well as the gold backed Chinese Yuan.

And not just the U.S.A, but countries around the world are saddled with too much debt. China’s debt to GDP is over 200%, for example.

But the Consequences (e.g., Key Sector Crashes) of that intensifying Debt Threat are far-reaching, profound, and coming soon.

NOTE: We do not think President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum will begin a Trade war – Indeed a one-sided trade war has been ongoing for a few years now via tariffs already imposed by many other nations against the U.S. including China e.g., stealing U.S. I.T. and otherwise competing unfairly. We applaud President Trump for, finally, defending U.S. interests.

And the Tax-cuts though helpful have come too late to help rescue the economy or substantially reduce (via increased economic growth) the Debt as the Reagan Tax-Cuts did.

After all, today the Schiller P/E is 33 today, not 7 like it was when Reagan was going to fix things, and the 10-Year Treasury yield was 14% then and had way down to go and U.S. debt to GDP was 39% when Reagan was sworn in versus 105% when President Trump was sworn in.

Indeed, when one Nets out the effect of the U.S. Tax Cut

“[I]t will increase the Deficit by $400 Billion more.”

Former OMB Director, David Stockman, 02/09/2018

And “require borrowing of at least $1.2 Trillion (in toto ed.) in Fiscal 2019.” IBID

And lead to interest rates of “3 to 4% soon on the U.S. 10-Year” …IBID

Consequence More Market Crashes.

(See Deepcaster’s Alerts re Profiting and Protecting)

[Of course, one simple Congressional Action could reduce the U.S. Debt (i.e. reduce federal taxes paid by U.S. Federal Taxpayer!) by over $500 billion in the next decade – see recent Alerts at carryingcapacity.org]

And Stockman makes a Key Point “When Asset prices Drop, Margin gets liquidated … it does not go anywhere.” And that will result in “Fiscal Calamity.” IBID

In sum, if current trends do not change, we expect the U.S.A to run $2 Trillion Annual Deficits by 2020. Indeed!

The U.S. is on track to be “borrowing 6% of GDP in the 10th year of a supposed recovery.” IBID And, as the former OMB Director D Stockman says, Mega Bank policies have led to this Mega-Risky Situation. The cure is

“When the Crunch Comes Bankers Lie,

“I think we ought to break them up.”

D. Stockman 02/09/2018 

And Deepcaster agrees.

And the coming Great Trigger will provide us the Opportunity to do so.

Bottomline: worldwide, businesses and consumers as well as Sovereigns are carrying at record indebted levels. And the coming Great Trigger can solve that one too, albeit very painfully.

The Market Crashes of early February, 2018 are a pale prelude to what is coming in Key Sectors.

Let us consider “Why” by considering the Real Numbers via Shadowstats.com versus the bogus official ones.

“Natural-Disaster Boost to the Economy Topped Out in November 2017;
Now Backing Off with a Vengeance, as Predicted

“Watch the Dollar!

“January 2018 Industrial Production Declined 0.1% (-0.1%) Month-to-Month,
On Top of Downside Revisions to December Activity

“Production Peaked in November, Net of a Record, Winter-Driven Utility Surge

“January Real Retail Sales Plunged 0.8% (-0.8%), Dropping 1.2% (-1.2%)
Net of Sharp Downside Revisions to December and Holiday-Season Activity;
Annual Growth Fell Deep into Recession-Warning Territory…

“‘Surging’ Housing Starts Activity Was Statistically Insignificant, as Usual,
Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High by 41.7% (-41.7%)…

“Common Inflation Experience Is Much Worse than the Headline Numbers”

“No. 936: January Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, CPI and PPI,” Shadowstats.com, February 19th, 2018

See Shadowstats Chart below. (Note 2) for the Real Numbers.

And the Knowledge of The Real Numbers plus observation of interventions has facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending very profitable Investments (See Recent Profits Taken, Note 3).

Also consider Chris Martenson’s analysis regarding The Central Bank ­­­­created Bubble’s in Bond and Equity prices. This is important for understanding the threats we face today and providing a basis for profiting and wealth protection.

“Did the markets recover organically? Or were they rescued by The Plunge Protection Team (PPT)?

“The answer matters.                 

“…the Federal Reserve has done far more self-inflicted harm to long-term US interests than anything that Russia has been accused of, let alone been proven to have done

  • Pension plans, both public and private have been ruined
  • Income inequality is at the highest it’s been in over 100 years
  • Wealth inequality is also at historical extremes
  • Student debt is now nearly $1.5 trillion, up
  • More than a trillion dollars of interest payments on savings accounts has been forfeited
  • Total debt in the US and globally is up massively

“These are among a few of the destructive results of the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates to 0% in order to reward the big banks, well connected private equity firms, and unrestrained government borrowing.

“Of course, when you print money (as the Fed does) you cannot create wealth; you only transfer it from one party to another. 

“…Losers have been seniors dependent on a fixed income, Millennials and every generation following them, and savers, pensioners, and taxpayers. The winners have been the banks, the ultra-rich, entrenched political parties, rentiers, and baby boomers with sizable financial portfolios.

“The catastrophic losses that will result from these massive pension shortfalls is nothing less than an act of domestic terrorism by the Federal Reserve. They will haunt the US for generations.

“There should be serious consequences for destroying the futures of tens of millions of retirees, on purpose —and knowingly—simply so big banks could not just enjoy fat profits.”

February 2018, Chris Martenson

Going forward Deepcaster recommends selecting inflation resistant Assets from among the following: Physical Gold and Silver, in a certain form, (see our Alerts) and select Quality Miners should be included as essential elements of a Strategy for Wealth Protection and Profit, despite ongoing Cartel (Note 1) precious metal price suppression. *  Agricultural land, select food production and other key commodities should also be included as preferred investments. And the #1 asset for Profit and Protection is among in the aforementioned. Re. precious metal prices consider the following.

”Gold and Silver Historic High Prices Adjusted for January 2018 CPI-U/Shadowstats Inflation

“CPI-U: GOLD at $2,708 per Troy Ounce, SILVER at $158 per Troy Ounce

“ShadowStats: GOLD at $15,044 per Troy Ounce, SILVER at $875 per Troy Ounce

“Despite the September 5, 2011 historic-high gold price of $1,895.00 per troy ounce (London afternoon fix), and despite the multi-decade-high silver price of $48.70 per troy ounce (London fix of April 28, 2011), gold and silver prices have yet to re-hit their 1980 historic levels, adjusted for inflation. The earlier all-time high of $850.00 (London afternoon fix, per Kitco.com) for gold on January 21, 1980 would be $2,708 per troy ounce, based on January 2018 CPI-U-adjusted dollars, and $15,044 per troy ounce, based on January 2018 ShadowStats-Alternate-CPI (1980-Base) adjusted dollars (all series here are not seasonally adjusted).

“In like manner, the all-time high nominal price for silver in January 1980 of $49.45 per troy ounce (London afternoon fix, per silverinstitute.org)—although approached in 2011—still has not been hit since 1980, including in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars. Based on January 2018 CPI-U inflation, the 1980 silver-price peak would be $158 per troy ounce and would be $875 per troy ounce in terms of the January 2018 ShadowStats-Alternate-CPI (1980-Base) adjusted dollars (again, all series not seasonally adjusted).

“Accompanying Graph 45 shows not just the regular gold plot published with monthly CPI detail, but also a comparative plot of the value of the Swiss franc (CHF) in U.S. dollars, usually published in the Hyperinflation Watch. As economic expectations have taken something of a hit in recent days, the U.S. dollar has lost ground against both gold and the CHF. Implications are highly inflationary for those living in a U.S. dollar-denominated world.

“Shown in Table 1 on page 47 of No. 859 Special Commentary, and in Table INFLATION-1 on page 46 of Special Commentary No. 935, over the decades, the increases in gold and silver prices have compensated for more than the loss of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar as reflected by CPI inflation. The precious metals also (particularly gold in the last year) effectively have come close to fully compensating for the loss of purchasing power of the dollar based on the ShadowStats-Alternate Consumer Price Measure (1980-Methodologies Base).”

IBID.

For additional recommendations regarding Profiting and Wealth Protection visit Deepcaster.com and read Deepcaster’s next Alert for the identity of the #1 Asset for Profit and Protection going forward.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
March 7, 2018

Note 1. We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2018 Update” on the ‘Two Free Reports’ page at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price suppression, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2.  Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported February 14, 2018
2.07%     /    9.81%

U.S. Unemployment reported February 2, 2018
4.15%     /     21.8%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported February 28, 2018
2.49%        /     -1.60%

U.S. M3 reported February 1, 2018 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.49%(e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.494 Trillion!)

Note 3. Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in 2018 in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios* posted under ‘SUBSCRIBER LOGIN

  • 35% Profit on a High Yield Bond Fund Short after only 34 days on February 6, 2018 (i.e., about 400% Annualized)
  • 50% Profit on a P.M. Streaming Company after only 6.5 years on February 1, 2018 (i.e., about 7.5% Annualized)
  • 115% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 18 months on January 4, 2018 (i.e., about 80% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 16 months on November 29, 2017 (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on a Mobile Media Company after less than 7 months on November 10, 2017 (i.e., about 115% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on a P M Royalty Streaming Company on October 5, 2017 after just 52 months, (i.e., about 20% Annualized)
  • 33% Profit on Independent Holding Company on August 30, 2017 after just 4 months (i.e., about 100% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on P.M. ETF on August 1, 2017 after just 15 months (i.e., about 70% Annualized)

Deepcaster’s Profits Taken in 2017, 2016 and 2015 included such successes as 105%, 90%, and 55% after just 16 days, 110%, 60% 130% and 75%, 65%, 50% in 2 days, 90%, 80% in 6 days, 110% in 3 days, 265% in 57 days, 65% in 2 days.

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

 


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Profiting  in 2018

(Part 2)

Unfortunately, as we demonstrated in Part 1 and further demonstrate below, the underlying Economic Reality was and still is that the Economy is not healthy and not recovering which is obvious when one looks at the Real Numbers per Shadowstats.com (Note 1) rather than the Bogus Official Ones.

So, our focus in this Part2 is on how to Profit and Protect Wealth from what is coming.

Therefore, further consider the Economic Realities which will be an increasingly Bearish Influence on Many Market Sectors Going Forward and a spur for Mega-Moves UP in Others.

Note that Buffet’s favorite indicator—Market Cap to GDP is flashing the same Warning Signal.

And the Shiller P/E Ratio is at its 2nd highest since 1890…higher even than before Black Tuesday in 1929. And NYSE Margin Debt is at Record Highs—33% Higher than just before the 2008 Crash—a Real Danger Signal.

This Economic Reality sets the stage for the coming “carnage in the Casino” which the former OMB Director, David Stockman, forecast over a couple of years ago but which has only been delayed by the “Trump Bump” and Tax Reduction Deal but not avoided. Consider his Analysis: [In our view Stockman’s Analysis is basically correct but his timing has been wrong.]

“There is going to be carnage in the casino, and the proof lies in the transcript of Janet Yellen’s press conference. She did not say one word about the real world; it was all about the hypothetical world embedded in the Fed’s tinker toy model of the US economy….

“This stupendously naïve old school marm still believes the received Keynesian scriptures as penned by the 1960s-era apostles James (Tobin), John (Galbraith), Paul (Samuelson) and Walter (Heller).

“But c’mon. Those ancient texts have no relevance to the debt-saturated, state-dominated, hideously over- capacitated global economy of 2015. They just convey a stupid little paint-by-the-numbers simulacrum of what a purportedly closed domestic economy looked like even back then.

“That is, before Richard Nixon had finally destroyed Bretton Woods and turned over the Fed’s printing presses to power aggrandizing PhDs; and before Mr. Deng had thrown out Mao’s little red book in favor of a central bank based credit Ponzi.

“As you listened to Yellen babble on about the purported cyclical “slack” remaining in the US economy, the current unusually low “natural rate” of federal funds, all the numerous and sundry “transient” factors affecting the outlook, and the Fed’s fetishly literal quest for 2.00% inflation (yes, these fools apparently think they can hit their inflation target to the second decimal place), only one conclusion was possible.

“To wit, sell the bonds, sell the stocks, sell the house, dread the Fed!

“In a global economy that is plunging into an epic deflationary contraction, Yellen & Co still embrace mythical and unmeasurable benchmarks for domestic full employment and other idealized performance targets….”

“Sell The Bonds, Sell The Stocks, Sell The House–Dread The Fed!,” David Stockman, via lemetrepolecafe.com, 12/18/2015

And Yellen’s successor, Powell, appears to be in the same Mold.

Generally, we agree with Stockman, except we offer a better way of Profiting and Protecting from what is coming, than selling everything, and our timing appears to be better (cf Note 2 re Cartel and Note 3 re Recent Profits Taken).

For example, Stockman fails to Note a Very Bullish Force has been successfully acting to boost the Prices of Equities in recent years. The low interest Rate, Easy Money, Markets-supportive (as, e.g., with QE) policies of The Fed and other Major Central Banks have allowed key Sectors to soar to Record Highs on Bullish Sentiment. Will any Forces derail this Momentum? Read on.

The Most important Factor for Investors to consider is that  The Private-for-Profit Fed’s and other Central Banks’ ZIRP has created Massive Bond and Equities and Real Estate and Corporate Debt Bubbles a consequence of Ultra-low Interest Rates which have allowed over-leveraging, i.e., a Massive Debt Bubble (see Deepcaster’s Buy Recommendation for Profiting in his first week of January Alert).

But The Fed and other Central Banks have created a hell of a Bubble—they need to raise rates but the IMF says even a modest interest rate rise could cause 20% of all Companies to Default!

For Deepcaster’s Forecasts regarding for which Sectors have Bubble and are likely to make Mega-Moves first (and which way) and for our Consequent Buy Recommendations, see our recent Letters and Alerts. Indeed, in our recent Letters and Alerts, we outline one Simple Strategy which is likely, given the Unique Economic and Market Realities in 2018, to result in both Profit and Wealth Protection.

Looking farther down the Road (months away), if The Fed is compelled (i.e., by a Market Crash, and/or Credit Default Domino Effect), to do another round of QE (i.e., money from helicopters as we expect it eventually will), then the recently strong $US will begin to Fall even harder.

And that fall will be magnified by a Trend which has already begun—a move away from the $US use in international Trade Settlement, and to the Chinese Yuan.

Some such Negative Catalyst is a virtual Certainty, the Only Question is the timing.

The U.S. Economy is ostensibly the strongest in the World these days, if one believes Official Figures but those Numbers which are positive have been buoyed up by Bullish Sentiment and Cheap Money. In Reality, the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate is near a 40-year low. And other data indicates the Declining Trend of slow Economic Growth. (See Note 1 from Shadowstats.com re the Real Numbers)

But note that the One Great Delusion (which is just gradually being dispelled) is that the U.S. Economy is somehow stronger than all the rest and can stay stronger despite the decelerating Eurozone and China and Japan.

Even putting aside the USA’s prospective $22 Trillion Deficit and its $100 Trillion plus downstream unfunded liabilities and a congeries of lousy Economic News, the Fact is that Prospects for the U.S. Economy are closely linked to the prospects for the rest of the World.

Indeed, there is over $9 Trillion of $US denominated credit outstanding to Non-Bank Borrowers outside the USA. Consider the potential Ripple (Tsunami!) Effect when Significant Numbers of Defaults begin and, especially, when the $500 Trillion plus (including Derivatives—see bis.org/statistics/derivatives) Credit Bubble begins to Burst.

Indeed, many expect the very Existence of The Fed will be at risk as a result of the Market Crash which it, above all, facilitated.

Indeed, Billionaire Investor, Jim Rogers, had it nailed four years ago when he said:

“Noted investor Jim Rogers says outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has set the stage for the collapse of the U.S. central bank within the next decade, and had turned the nation’s fiscal balance sheet into ‘garbage.’

“In a recent interview with the British financial website Mineweb, Rogers said Bernanke and his fellow central bankers in other countries have brought the global economy to the brink of disaster….

“Rogers predicted that history will remember Bernanke as ‘the guy who set the stage for the demise of the central bank in America.’

“‘It’s not a possibility,’ Rogers said, ‘it’s a probability. People will realize that these guys have led us down a terrible path. The Fed balance sheet has increased by 500 per cent in the last five years, and a lot of it’s garbage.’…”

“Jim Rogers: The Federal Reserve’s Days Are Numbered,”
Moneynews, 01/06/2014

Billionaire Investor Jim Rogers’ Negative view of the private-for-profit Fed (which, under Janet Yellen, has doubled down on Bernanke’s Policies) is echoed by former Director of the OMB, David Stockman, who said that The Fed has created “The Mother of All Bubbles.”

And just this January, 2018 in his “ICE–Nine is Coming Sooner Than You Expect” (Rickards Strategic Intelligence), Rickards indicates that the coming Crash is likely to create a Liquidity Crisis of Massive Proportions.

Therefore, we have already laid out Triggers for and Signals of an impending Crash Leg in one Sector and strong launch up in another (and appropriate Buy Recommendations) as well as how to Profit and Protect from the coming Crash and Liquidity Crisis in our recent and forthcoming Letters and Alerts.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 25, 2018

Note 1. Shadow Government Statistics

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 12, 2018
2.11%     /    9.85%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 5, 2018
4.09%     /     21.7%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 21, 2017
2.30%        /     -1.78%

U.S. M3 reported January 4, 2018 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.77%(e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.496 Trillion!)

Note 2. *We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s Report, “Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention —2017 Update” in the ‘Free Reports’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 3. Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in 2017 in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios* posted under ‘SUBSCRIBER LOGIN

  • 115% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 18 months on January 4, 2018 (i.e., about 80% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on a Premier Lithium Miner after only 16 months on November 29, 2017 (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on a Mobile Media Company after less than 7 months on November 10, 2017 (i.e., about 115% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on a P M Royalty Streaming Company on October 5, 2017 after just 52 months, (i.e., about 20% Annualized)
  • 33% Profit on Independent Holding Company on August 30, 2017 after just 4 months (i.e., about 100% Annualized)
  • 85% Profit on P.M. ETF on August 1, 2017 after just 15 months (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
  • 60% Profit on Short $US Position on July 31, 2017 after just 30 days (i.e., about 730% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on a Long Bond position on April 12, 2017 after just 42 days (i.e., about 860% Annualized)
  • 105% Profit on P.M. ETF on February 21, 2017 after just 10 months (i.e., about 115% Annualized)
  • 90% Profit on Gold Shares ETF on January 20, 2017 after just 9 months (i.e., about 150% Annualized)
  • 55% Profit on P.M. Streaming Company on January 12, 2017 after just 16 days (i.e., about 1255% Annualized)

Deepcaster’s Profits Taken in 2016 and 2015 included such successes as 110%, 60% 130% and 75%, 65%, 50% in 2 days, 90%, 80% in 6 days, 110% in 3 days, 265% in 57 days, 65% in 2 days.

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.


DEEPCASTER LLC
FORTRESS ASSETS PORTFOLIO | LETTERS, ALERTS & ARTICLES
HIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR | HIGH YIELD PORTFOLIO
Preserve & Enhance Wealth
Investment & Geopolitical Intelligence

Profiting  in 2018

(Part 1)

Key Sector Bubbles Bursting and Mega-Moves Up in others are our forecast for 2018—and we expect the Bursting and one Mega-Spike UP to begin very soon. (See our latest Alerts and Letters for our Specific Forecasts and Buy Recommendations).

The election of Donald Trump as President and then the December, 2017 passage of the Tax Reform Bill jacked up Market Sentiment to Bullish and then more Bullish and U.S. Equities Markets roared to record highs throughout 2017 and into 2018.

Now what? Now what are investors to do to Maximize Real Gains, and avoid losses, in 2018?

Consider:

Recent moves in The Bond Market and the $US Now reflect what we have been forecasting, that Inflation is coming. Thus, Bond prices and the $US have begun to tank as we forecast, mainly because Sovereigns, Businesses and Consumers are all too over-leveraged.

And too over-leveraged mainly because The Private, For-Profit Fed and other Major Central banks have kept Rates too low for too long and thereby artificially elevated Equities and other Financial Assets.

But the oncoming Inflation is likely to reverse this process by diminishing the price of Financial Assets and increasing the Prices of Real Assets, e.g., Commodities, including Gold and Silver (and in spite of Cartel [see Note 1] Price Suppression efforts). See our Recent Buy Recommendations aimed at profiting from these developments.

Short-term, the Specter of Increasing Real Inflation (from, e.g., more deficit spending to “fund” the prospective U.S. Tax cuts) plus China’s reported aim of Decreasing U.S. Treasury purchases recently caused U.S. 10 Year Bond Yields to rise up to bounce around 2.6%ish and eventually will rise more as inflation becomes more apparent.

Couple that likelihood with the IMF’s Serious Warning last April that over 20% of U.S. Corporations are at risk of Default if Rates Rise even Modestly (because they are over-leveraged), and you see why Soc. Gen has predicted “This doesn’t end well.” Deepcaster agrees that this world-wide overleveraging (facilitated by The Fed and other Central Banks) is perhaps the Greatest Threat to the Economy and Markets and will soon Crash the Credit Markets as Inflation intensifies.

The Bond Market simply does not “believe” the “Recovering Economy” Narrative and neither does Deepcaster. For example, the apparently recovering Eurozone economy is like the U.S. and Japanese Economies, inflated mainly because of Money Printing (i.e., QE) by their Central Banks.

Thus, we expect Yields will continue their rising trends (because of Real Inflation) to be interrupted intermittently by one or more Equities Crash Legs because inter alia, “interest coverage for the smallest 50% of companies is near record lows” (SocGen). Indeed!

Stagflation here we come, as we have warned.

The “Stag” Aspect of Stagflation results from the Economy which is NOT recovering (Shadowstats.com Summary and see Note 2 below)

“Economy Remains in Deepening Trouble and is Not at Full Employment”

“Weaker-Than-Consensus 148,000 Payroll Gain Was Boosted by Downside Revisions,
Low-Level Annual Payroll Growth Continued to Signal a New Recession

“December 2017 Unemployment Rates Were Mixed Month-to-Month:
U.3 Eased to 4.07% from 4.12%, U.6 Rose to 8.08% from 7.99% and the
ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 21.7%: No Full Employment

“Monthly Trade Deficit Topped $50 Billion for First Time in Five Years, with
Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Solid Track for
Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007

“Despite a November Gain on Top of Upside Revisions, Real Construction Spending
Continued in Annual Decline, as Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse,
Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)”

Commentary Number 930-B, Shadowstats.com, January 8, 2018

As indicated above,  of the several Triggers for a Credit Market and/or Equities Crash out there, THE BIG TRIGGER is coming soon is when the U.S. Congress and Investing Public fully realize The Tax Reform Plan is NOT Revenue Neutral and that the U.S. Government will have to go deeper into Debt. ($1.7 Trillion deeper according to the C.B.O.)

As well, The Great Credit Default Crisis (which we earlier described in detail) is beginning NOW (albeit in early days), just not widely acknowledged, yet, except now by SocGen. [of course the opposition in the U.S. will blame this on President Trump.]

Consider, the Bubble Character of the International Economy is reflected in the Balance Sheets of the Big 3—The Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, all have $4 Trillion plus Balance Sheets—impossible to substantially unwind without Crashing the Economy. And businesses and individuals are carrying record levels of Debt. Collectively, all the aforementioned Debts are The unavoidable Big Kahuna.

Central Banks’ Assets are now 40% of World GDP.

Also dangerous is the U.S. Sovereign ($20 Trillion plus) and Business Debt Bubble—Debts that can never be fully repaid without devaluing the Currency and the recent drop in the USDX to 91ish is signaling this.

And another Major Drag on the U.S. Economy is the $330 Billion per year that the annual LEGAL Immigrant Inflow of 1.5+ Million Immigrants cost U.S. Taxpayers NET (after subtracting Taxes Immigrants pay). See noted Economist (of shadowstats.com) John Williams’s study posted at CarryingCapacity.org which sponsored it and which has a Solution.

And consider other Bubbles, China’s housing and Wealth Management Bubbles are The Biggest Ones, but not the only Dangerous Ones.

Yes, the $US is headed for a Crash below 90 basis USDX in the next very few months if not sooner, and eventually the Chinese Yuan too, but not so much ultimately because it is increasingly backed by Physical Gold, and thus has already become part of the World Reserve Currency Basket is important.

Those who are aware of the aforementioned facts and trends are well-prepared to Profit and Protect in 2018.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
January 19, 2018

Note 1. We encourage those who doubt the scope and Power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster‘s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled, “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel‘s Dark Interventions – III,” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled, “Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds,” in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster‘s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster‘s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported January 12, 2018
2.11%     /    9.85%

U.S. Unemployment reported January 5, 2018
4.09%     /     21.7%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported December 21, 2017
2.30%        /     -1.78%

U.S. M3 reported January 4, 2018 (Month of December, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.77%(e) (i.e., total M3 Now at $18.496 Trillion!)