ALERTS: Archives 2020

ALERT

Key Sector Mega-Move Impending–Mega-Consequences via Real Data

Any day now the Key Sector Monster Mega-Move could begin. Credible Technicals are beginning to forecast this Mega move.
But more important are the Real Economic and Market Data which not only “forecast” this Key Sector Mega Move but also the Mega-Consequences for the Economy and other Market Sectors.

To consider these and our Recos re how to Profit and Protect, read on.

Sovereign Nations, businesses, and individuals are loaded with unpayable debt. The USA’s alone is some $27 Trillion!

And the Assets of all three are hyperinflated with the low interest Fiat Money which The Fed and other Central Banks Conclusion: Inflation (specifically Stagflation) is coming soon

Equities are also Hyperinflated on the months of Easy Fiat Money. But not only are the Economic (see below) and Market Fundamentals signaling “Crash Coming” but there are Crash inducing Triggers:

–the Pandemic generated Economic Recession is not going away any month soon; indeed, will likely worsen into 2022…and to make prospects worse, a new strain of the China virus has developed.
— political uncertainties abound , from the Election rigging in the USA to the conflicts within and with the EU
— And the Main Threat to the USA and the Western World, CHINA, is increasingly aggressive There are many flash points for conflict, including the China-built Islands in the International Waters of the South China sea…..built not only to control shipping lanes but to commandeer fishing grounds to feed its billion plus people
— Food supplies for a world population growing at 80 Million/year are an increasing flash point Fishing grounds are a main sticking point in the Brexit Negotiations also. see balance.org
— and lack of adequate food and other supplies, and disease, are driving mass Migrations of millions into the USA and Western Europe see carryingcapacity.org
— And the Real Data below, courtesy of Shadowstats.com confirm the foregoing AND indicate to us the Key Sector Equities Crash is impending

See Deepcaster’s Buy Recos in our recent Letters and Alerts to Profit and Protect

NOTE especially “Monthly annual growth in M1 surged to an historic peak of 53.2% in November” reflecting a Fear-generated flight to cash! and NOTE the SYSTEMIC RISK Section below!!!!

 

–SHADOWSTATS.com:

– Pandemic-Driven U.S. Economic Collapse Continues in a Hardening, Protracted “L”-Shaped Recovery

– Severe Systemic Structural Damage from the Shutdown Will Forestall Meaningful Economic Rebound into 2022 or Beyond, Irrespective of Coronavirus Treatments and Vaccines

– Panicked, Unlimited Federal Reserve Money Creation and Federal Government Deficit Spending Continue and Will Expand, Triggering Major Domestic Inflation

– With Fundamental Dollar Debasement Intensifying, Holding Physical Gold and Silver Protects the Purchasing Power of One’s Assets

Scroll down for the latest ShadowStats outlook, headline economic news and background information on the U.S. Economy, Financial System (FOMC), Financial Markets and Alternate Data, also for Publicly Available Special Reports and Contact Information.

• L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S .. The November 2020 Cass Freight Index® gained year-to-year for the second month, up by 2.67%, following a 2.43% gain in October and a 1.84% (-1.84%) annual decline in September. The year-to-year increases were the first seen since the Federal Reserve’s tightening in November 2018 strangled U.S. Economic Activity (December 17th, CassInfo.com – See detail at https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/november-2020). Increasingly positive annual growth in freight activity usually signals positive economic growth. That said, the annual gains in October and November 2020 freight were boosted on a relative basis against unseasonably sharp declines in 2019 freight activity. Where the October 2020 freight numbers coincided with an upturn in headline annual growth for Real Retail Sales, that upturn weakened in November reporting, on top of downside revisions to October sales, with annual growth in November Industrial Production in intensifying annual decline (see later comments on those series). Coinciding with the shift to positive annual growth in freight, the prior 12-month moving average of the Cass Freight Index® notched higher for the second month. Those year-to-year and 12-month-moving-average metrics tend to neutralize seasonality in this unadjusted series. Both measures turned negative in December 2018, when excessive FOMC tightening and rate hikes hit the economy hard. The March 2020 Pandemic-driven economic collapse dominated and supplanted what already was an unfolding recession.

With both freight metrics having reversed their recession signals, circumstances suggest the Pandemic-collapsed economy has bottomed out, although there are indications of a re-intensifying downturn tied to COVID-19. ShadowStats regularly follows and analyzes the Cass Freight Index® as a highest-quality coincident and leading indicator of underlying economic reality. We thank Cass for their permission to graph and to use their numbers in our Commentaries. Graphs and extended analysis follow in Flash Commentary No. 1454.

(December 17) Despite reporting inconsistencies, weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance have shown a sharply deteriorating [rising] weekly trend in unadjusted year-to-year growth, for the last five weeks, since the week-ended November 7th, widening sharply in the latest week-ended December 12th reporting (Department of Labor – DOL). Although there are major headline distortions and inconsistencies in the seasonally adjusted reporting of the weekly New Claims series, and major quality issues in the unadjusted series, year-to-year change in the unadjusted series has begun to show a renewed semblance of consistent trend. Where annual growth had plateaued at a still-high level of year-to-year weekly growth into early September 2020, a subsequent, minor easing pattern troughed in early November and has plateaued/ trended higher since. Extended coverage, details and graphs follow in No. 1454.

(December 17) November 2020 Building Permits gained a statistically meaningful 6.2% [90% Confidence Interval] in the month, while Housing Starts gained a not statistically meaningful 1.2% on top of downside revisions (Census Bureau). Seasonally adjusted November 2020 Building Permits jumped by 6.2% in the month, 8.5% year-to-year, having declined in October by a revised 0.1% (-0.1%) [previously unchanged at 0.0% for the month], up by a revised 2.7% [previously 2.8%] year-to-year. In contrast, November Housing Starts increased 1.2% in the month on top of downside revisions to October and particularly to September activity. As result, the marginally significant annual gain in November 2020 Starts of 12.8% was down from 14.0% [previously 14.2%] in October and from 12.8% [previously 14.5%] in September. Where the headline level of November 2020 Building Permits has rebounded by 53.8% from its Pandemic-driven April 2020 trough, it also now stands at 6.7% above its January 2020 pre-Pandemic peak. The headline level of November 2020 Housing Starts has rebounded by 63.6% from its Pandemic-driven April 2020 trough, yet it also now stands at 4.3% (-4.3%) below its January 2020 pre-Pandemic peak. That said, both headline November 2020 Permits and Starts still hold shy of ever recovering their pre-Great Recession peak levels of activity, respectively by 27.6% (-27.6%) and 31.9% (-31.9%).

(December 16) Falling More Than Expected, on Top of Downside Revisions, and with Rapidly Slowing Annual Growth, November Retail Sales Stalled, Confirming the Unfolding “L”-Shaped Nature of the Economic Non-Recovery (Census). Before inflation-adjustment, nominal November 2020 Retail Sales dropped in the month by 1.1% (-1.1)% [Consensus Outlook was around 0.4% (-0.4%)], following a revised decline of 0.1% (-0.1%) [previously a 0.3% gain] in October, and a revised gain of 1.7% [previously 1.6%] in September. ShadowStats assesses Retail Sales in “real” terms, net of growth due to CPI-U inflation, and as otherwise calculated by the St. Louis Fed. November 2020 Real Retail Sales dropped by 1.3% (-1.3%) in the month, down by 1.4% (-1.4%) net of revisions, following a revised decline of 0.1% (-0.1%) [previously a gain of 0.2%] in October, and a revised monthly gain of 1.5% [previously 1.4%] in September. Respective real annual growth slowed sharply to 2.9% in November 2020, from a revised 4.2% [previously 4.4% in October] and a revised 4.6% [previously 4.5%] in September. Separately, what had been headlined as booming annual real growth in recent months still is not credible, against ongoing annual declines in related, but more-stable, Payroll and Production reporting. See the discussions in the following Industrial Production and Payroll Employment sections, No. 1453 and as will expanded upon and graphed in pending No. 1454.

(December 15) November 2020 Industrial Production declined year-to-year by a deepening 5.50% (-5.50%) versus a revised drop of 5.00% (-5.00%), previously 5.34% (-5.34%) in October 2020 (Federal Reserve Board – FRB). Where the pace of annual decline is deepening for Production, the “recovery” has stalled anew. Keep in mind the year-to-year change in Production already had turned negative in September 2019, thanks to the Fed’s excessive tightening efforts to slow the economy. As a result, Industrial Production has been in annual decline for fourteen straight months. Of some concern for November 2020 Retail Sales (Dec 16), Consumer Goods Production was on early track (October and November) for a Third-Quarter 2020 quarterly contraction, aside from a deepening monthly year-to-year decline. On a month-to-month basis, November Production gained 0.39% on top upside revisions, by 0.75% net revisions to October.

On the plus-side, in response to some upturn in oil prices, the Mining Sector turned positive month-to-month in November 2020, up by 2.27% [by 1.65% net of revisions], with the annual contraction in the sector narrowing from 14.97% (-14.97%) [previously 14.45% (-14.45%)] in October 2020 to 12.52% (-12.52%) in November 2020. Expanded detail follows in pending No. 1454).

(December 10) Unadjusted November 2020 Year-to-Year CPI-U Held at 1.17%, versus 1.18% in October, Still Depressed by Gasoline Prices (BLS). The seasonally adjusted November Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) gained 0.19% in the month, versus a gain of 0.04% in October. Gasoline declined by 0.39% (-0.39%) in the month, down by 19.33% (-19.33%) year-to-year, with the broader Energy Sector up monthly by 0.43% in November, against 0.14% in October, respectively down year-to-year by 9.43% (-9.43%) and 9.19% (-9.19%) in November and October. Food Sector monthly inflation dropped by 0.9% (-0.9%) in November, having gained 0.19% in October, with respective monthly year-to-year inflation of 3.93% and 3.70% in November and October. Net of Food and Energy, “Core” inflation rose by 0.22% in the month, versus 0.01% in October, with respective annual gains in November and October of 1.65% and 1.63%.

The November 2020 ShadowStats Alternate CPI (1980 Base) eased minimally to 8.8% year-to-year, from 8.9% in October, 9.1% in September and against 9.0% in August. Where the 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) formally was set at 1.3%, based on the headline year-to-year change in the September 2020 CPI-W, a more realistic number would have been 9.0%, using ShadowStats adjustments. The ShadowStats Alternate CPI-U estimate restates current headline inflation so as to reverse the government’s inflation-reducing gimmicks of recent decades, which were designed specifically to reduce/ understate COLAs. Related graphs and methodology are available to all on the updated ALTERNATE DATA tab above. Subscriber-only data downloads and an Inflation Calculator also are available there.

(December 4) November 2020 Payroll Employment circumstances continued to deteriorate — Jobs “Recovery” has stalled in “Non-Recovery,” with monthly year-to-year declines in total Payrolls holding steady at 6% (-6%) (BLS). As suggested here last month, “… Payroll Employment improvement continued in sharp deceleration, with the pace of annual decline leveling off around 6% (-6%) in an “L”-Shaped economic recovery.” Meaningful quality and credibility issues continue to plague the “improving” headline labor numbers. November payroll jobs gained for the seventh month, up by 245,000 [256,000 net of revisions] month-to-month, well shy of expectations, and well below slowing monthly paces of 711,000 in September and 610,000 in October, with the rate of annual decline leveling off at 6.0% (-6.0%) in both October and November, having declined by 6.4% (-6.4%) in September. Industry payrolls in the key sectors such as Retail Sales and Manufacturing showed deepening annual contractions, with no economic recovery to pre-pandemic levels in sight.

Also flattening out at “Non-Recovery” levels, headline Unemployment U.3 was understated for the ninth straight month. The BLS acknowledged continuing misclassification of some “unemployed” persons as “employed,” in the Household Survey. An estimated “upside limit” of 629,000 persons in November, up from 562,000 in October, was indicated as the potential number of “employed,” who more properly should have been counted as “unemployed.” That reduced a potential November 2020 U.3 headline unemployment rate of 7.1% to the published headline 6.7% (6.69%). Such was down from a headline 6.88% (6.9%) [potentially as high as 7.2% with misclassifications] in October. Broader November 2020 headline U.6 unemployment [including short-term discouraged workers and those employed part-time for economic reasons] eased to 11.98%, from 12.10% in October. Including long-term discouraged/ displaced workers, the November ShadowStats Alternate Measure — moving on top of U.6 — held at 26.3%, same as in October, down from 26.9% in September, all as graphed and detailed on the ALTERNATE DATA tab, with extended coverage in No. 1453.

• E L E C T I O N .. (Updated December 15th) Where the non-authoritative U.S. news media declared Joseph Biden to be President-Elect early on, and the Electoral College has so voted, President Donald Trump has not conceded and still has pending legal and procedural challenges, claiming broadly based election fraud. Republicans have had serious and meaningful issues with the Election “results” in a number of key states. While the President has allowed transition moves, he is not looking to concede. If issues remain before the Supreme Court and/ or if the matter ends up before the House of Representatives, keep in mind that the financial markets do not like uncertainty and likely would provide an early signal of shifting sentiment. Republicans still are expected to retain control of the U.S. Senate, pending the January Georgia run-off elections. Democrats have retained control of the U.S. House of Representatives, but with a reduced majority. Potential economic and financial-market impact from election-related and COVID-19 developments are discussed in Flash Commentary No. 1451, No. 1452 the SYSTEMIC RISK section and pending Special Benchmark Commentary No. 1455.

• S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K .. Updated — OBFUSCATION: FEDERAL RESERVE HAS REDEFINED THE MONEY SUPPLY AND OVERHAULED REPORTING OF SAME [Announced December 17th, the day following the December FOMC Press Conference, effective in February 2021, with retroactive reporting to May 2020]: (1) M1, instead of M2, now will include Savings Deposits [latest weekly M1 at $6.6 trillion today would be $17.8 trillion with the new accounting, against an unrevised $19.2 trillion in M2. Why even bother to differentiate M1 and M2?]. (2) The Fed argues that regulatory changes it made in April to “Savings Deposits” altered their liquidity characteristics to those of the M1 components. (3) Reporting will be monthly instead of weekly. (4) The Fed no longer will publish non-M1 and M2 account balances, such as Institutional Money Funds [ShadowStats uses that number in estimating M3, which the Fed no longer publishes]. (5) The Fed no longer will break out account types by Commercial Banks versus Thrift Institutions.

Annual Growth in the New M1 hit a record 348.4% in November 2020, otherwise 53.2% pre re-definition. A side effect of the reconfiguration of the Money Supply is soaring annual growth in the most-liquid major sector of the redefined series: Money Supply M1. The jump in the regulatory redefined most-liquid category, will have no year-ago parallel until May 2021. Indeed, a year ago, Savings Deposits were not as liquid and not comparable to M1. — My conclusion: At work here is attempted obfuscation of exploding crises within the Federal Reserve and the Banking Systems, as evidenced in key numbers in narrower detail (again, see the flight-to-quality story), which can be masked by broader, less specific and less frequent reporting. Revisions to the aggregate November monthly Money Supply M1, M2 and ShadowStats M3 details, have been updated in the ALTERNATE DATA tab Table (above). The more-exotic Money Supply details and indicated revisions will be reviewed and graphed, along with other numbers in pending No. 1454.

(December 16) [Not Revised] Per Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Despite Deteriorating Near-Term Conditions, the Long-Term Outlook Is Slightly Less Negative, with Targeted Fed Funds Holding at 0.00% to 0.25%, and with Increasingly Heavy Asset Purchases Likely Continuing at Least into 2023. Economic, FOMC (the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee), financial-market, political and social circumstances all continue to evolve along with the Pandemic. Positive developments on COVID-19 vaccines and treatments hold out some prospect of limited economic improvement in 2021 or 2022. Still, the U.S. economy and personal circumstances have suffered severe structural damage from the shutdown. Ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed and likely will expand well into 2023, per both the current FOMC Outlook and ShadowStats assessment.

At his December 16th FOMC Press Conference, Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chairman Jerome Powell reconfirmed that the extraordinarily expansive and accommodative FOMC Monetary policies would intensify. From the FRB statement: “[T]he Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage backed securities by at least $40 billion per month [minimally $1.44 trillion per year] until substantial further progress has been made towards the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals [meaning higher inflation].” Fed Funds targeted at 0.00% to 0.25%, would continue for the duration of the Pandemic-driven economic collapse, and until such time as the Fed’s recently established policy of debasing the U.S. Dollar at a greater pace (boosting inflation) shows results. Specifically, the FOMC looks to boost headline “Core” PCE inflation above what previously had been its formal 2.0% target for an extended period time, again, with results unlikely before 2023, per Chairman Powell. Expanded analysis follows in No. 1454).

MONEY SUPPLY — Updated (December 20th, ShadowStats, FRB, and as discussed and graphed in No. 1453) – “The Biggest Flight-to-Cash in Modern Monetary History” – [Consider the subsequent announcement of Money Supply redefinitions in context of the discussion here of panicked flight of cash to M1 (effectively cash and checking) from M2 (then defined as savings accounts), areas coincidentally just redefined.

Unparalleled since the 9-11 Terrorist attacks, the seasonally adjusted level of Money Supply M1 in the two weeks ended November 30th jumped by a record 14.1% (24.0% unadjusted), or a seasonally adjusted $809.3 billion ($1.33 trillion unadjusted), as savings accounts have been liquidated in M2 and the funds shifted to cash and checking accounts in M1. In the same two-week period, total M2, which includes M1, only declined by 0.6% (-0.6%) seasonally adjusted and gained only 0.4% unadjusted. Discussed in No. 1453), what was driving the flight-to-cash could include uncertainty tied to the election results in combination with public perceptions of deteriorating COVID-19 conditions. There was some precursor money supply shifts seen at the end of March 2020, as the Pandemic concerns came to a head. If tied to the Election and/ or the Pandemic, these near-term money shifts more realistically should be viewed on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis. Updated December 20th: In the subsequent week-ended December 7th, seasonally adjusted M1 and total M2 gained in the week, respectively by 0.6% and 1.5%, see pending No. 1454).

MONTHLY AVERAGE MONEY SUPPLY — Monthly Average November 2020 M1 Money Supply exploded year-to-year by an unprecedented 53.2% [based on pre-FRB redefinitions]. (December 20th, ShadowStats – see the updated Money Supply posting on the ALTERNATE DATA tab). Based on headline FRB reporting of November 2020 Money Supply and the ShadowStats M3 estimation, Money Supply levels hit historic highs in November, with record annual growth in M1 and M2, all signaling intensifying inflation pressures, on top of record levels in prior October 2020 estimates. Monthly annual growth in M1 surged to an historic peak of 53.2% in November 2020, up from 42.3% in October. The unusually large jump in M1 reflected the largest-ever two-week movement of funds from M2 to M1 accounting. November M2 annual growth was a record 25.1%, up from 24.2% in October. Although the ShadowStats Ongoing Estimate of M3 has softened year-to-year to 22.8%, down from June’s record 25.9%, again, the dollar level of M3 still rose to a record high.

Targeted at boosting headline inflation, annual growth in the FOMC-controlled Monetary Base jumped to 53.6% in November 2020, from 51.2% in October, off an interim near-term low of 44.2% in July, having peaked earlier at 58.7% in May 2020, as part of the Fed’s initial Pandemic monetary stimulus. Separately, unadjusted annual growth in November 2020 Currency in Circulation (part of the Monetary Base) held at 15.2% for a second month, its highest level since Alan Greenspan’s extraordinary Y2K precautionary cash build-up.

That said, systemic turmoil is just beginning, with both the Fed and U.S. Government still driving uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth and uncontained Deficit Spending. Continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus will be needed into 2022, irrespective of the nature of new COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, and irrespective of the next Administration. Extreme fiscal-deficit spending and stimulus, and accelerated Hyperinflation risk, likely would follow if the Democrats should gain control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, come January. See extended discussions on the inflation threat and re-accelerating money growth in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438, subsequent missives including particularly No. 1451 and pending No. 1455.

SHADOWSTATS ALERT: In context of the evolving Coronavirus Pandemic and related or exacerbating crises, near-term financial-market risks from negative economic, liquidity and political issues, are intensified by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar. That said, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead continues for: (1) A continuing, rapidly deepening (potentially hyperinflationary) U.S. economic collapse, reflected in (2) Continued flight to safety in precious metals, with accelerating upside pressures on gold and silver prices, (3) Mounting selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against the Swiss Franc, and (4) Despite recent extreme Stock Market volatility, continuing high risk of major instabilities and heavy stock-market selling, complicated by ongoing direct, supportive market interventions arranged by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, as head of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the “Plunge Protection Team”), or as otherwise gamed by the FOMC.

• P O S T I N G .. S C H E D U L E S .. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its third estimate of Third-Quarter 2020 GDP on Tuesday, December 22nd, at 8:30 a.m. ET, with ShadowStats coverage likely by 1 p.m.

Best Wishes — John Williams

 

Best regards,

Deepcaster
December 21, 2020


ALERT

Multi-100% Profit Potential BUY RECO –Threat Response

In our December, 2020 Letter Surmounting Q1 2021 Mega-Threats for Profit and Protection, Deepcaster indicated the Sectors we forecast were likely going to suffer a Major Takedown in Q1 2021 or before, and why. Now it appears that those Sectors will likely Crash before the end of this year!!

To see the Sectors Forecast to crash and importantly our BUY RECO with multi-hundred % profit potential read on.

Election outcome uncertainties, Pandemic induced Economic Crises and Excessive unpayable Debt (with more coming) are all Causes which could and likely will trigger an Equities Sectors Crash sooner rather than later.

And when Crashes hit what almost always happens:
the Volatility Index VIX skyrockets.

Thus this week we recommend a leveraged VIX Play to profit from the prospective Crash:

TVIXF seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the returns of twice (2x) the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index. The index was designed to provide investors with exposure to one or more maturities of futures contracts on the VIX, which reflects implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The ETNs are linked to a multiple (2x) of the daily return of the index and do not represent an investment in the VIX.

Recommendation to consider:
Buy TVIXF at $35 per share or better

Caveat: Leveraged plays carry considerable risks, e.g. “slippage overnight” , and others. Only investors aware of the risks should consider purchasing them.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
December 14, 2020


ALERT

Key Sector Mega-Move Likely Coming Very Soon

Fundamentals, Technicals, Interventionals, and Macro all “Agree” that a Key Sector Mega-Move is very likely coming very soon. Rarely do all four Agree but we elaborate on the consequences of that happening in detail in this Alert.

Fundamentals

Sovereigns, Businesses, and Individuals are drowning in Unpayable Debt. And we expect Governments to Add even more in the Next few months to get us through the Pandemic and Economic Recession. At some point, concatenating Defaults will begin.

Consider Shadowstats’ most recent Flash Commentary.

– Positive News on COVID-19 Vaccines and Treatments Rallied Stocks to Pre-Pandemic Peaks

– Pandemic-Related Structural Damage to the Economy, However, Promises a Troubled Recovery, With Meaningful Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus Likely Continuing Beyond 2021

– FOMC Will Maintain Its Emergency Monetary Expansion For the Duration of the Economic Crisis, Looking to Boost Inflation

– At Historic Highs, October 2020 Money Supply Continued to Surge

– With Presidential Election Results Under Challenge, Political Uncertainties Can Roil the Financial Markets

– Democrat Control of Both the Congress and Executive Branch Would Threaten U.S. Dollar Stability and Exacerbate Inflation Risks

– October 2020 Employment Growth Continued Faltering in an L-Shaped Economic Recovery

– Headline October Inflation Remained Muted by the Oil-Price War

– Third-Quarter 2020 Trade Deficit Was Worst in History

“Flash Commentary No. 1451,” shadowstats.com

Technicals

First, we quote McHugh!

“Wave C up (occurring now) is the end of a double Zig Zag Pattern for Cycle Degree Wave B up, Once that Tops a Massive Cycle degree Wave C down should crash the Stock Market Again. This coming Wave C-down suggests some fearful news will accompany it in 2021.” Technical Indicator Index 11/18/20

In addition:

  • A majority of Retail Investors just turned Bullish — a Bearish sign.
  • The CBOE Put/Call Ratio closed at .73 this past Monday reflecting unjustified optimism because it reflects more call buying than put buying.
  • And that most reliable Indicator, the VIX, has approached the bottom of its lower Ballinger Band indicating an over-bought Market.

Interventionals

The primary cause of the Unpayable Debt Reality referenced in “Fundamentals” above is the Money Printing by The Fed and other Deep State Central Banks. Rather than letting the 2008 Market Collapse continue to follow a “Natural” Course (which would have entailed Bank Failures, including some oof those which own the private for-profit Fed), the Central Banks embarked on a Rig Job/Money Printing, which continues to this Day.

The “Bubble” thus created is huge and when it Pops there will be Hell to pay.

Macro

The Confluence and Interaction of all three of the foregoing Fundamentals, Technicals and Interventionals, is itself a Macro Signal that a Mega Move is coming.

In sum, Deepcaster forecasts that a Major Equity Markets Crash beginning some time between Now and no later than January 31, 2021 is highly likely.

We expect to be adding additional positions to Profit and Protect, soon.

Best regards,

Deepcaster
November 19, 2020


ALERT

The #1 Asset for Profit and Protection as Challenges Intensify — BUY RECO!

Unresolved challenges — pandemic, economic, Chinese Communist Party, Disputed (Stolen?) Election, Unpayable Debts, and Consequences of all the above.

Harder times a’comin’.

But fortunately, there is one Asset which is highly likely to provide Great Profit and Great Wealth Protection going forward.

And that Asset is…

Silver, even more than Gold, should provide Great Profit and Protection. Why?

Not only is it money, portable hard money, but it is essential to many uses in the contemporary World Medicine, Computers, Transportation, Communications.

5G phones will need at least 88 Million ounces initially going forward (D. Morgan). And it is essential in virtually all Communications equipment.

In sum, the demand for Silver is increasingly outstripping the supply.

Thus, it is no surprise that the “Smart Money” is, e.g., buying record amounts of Silver via ETFs. 220 Million ounces in recent months into SLV.

So how to Profit and Protect.

First, Deepcaster recommends you hold or add to the Bullion (e.g., in Coins) which we have already recommended.

In addition, now we reiterate a Truism — Good Mining Stocks are de facto Options which do not expire.

So today, we recommend for your consideration, an ETF “basket” of Junior Silver Mining Stocks SILJ.

SILJ seeks investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Prime Junior Silver Miners & Explorers Index. The fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in the component securities of the index and in ADRs and GDRs based on the component securities in the index. The index tracks the performance of the equity securities (or corresponding American Depositary Receipts (“ADRs”) or Global Depositary Receipts (“GDRs”)) of small-capitalization companies actively engaged in silver refining, mining, or exploration (“Junior Silver Companies”). The fund is non-diversified.

Among the “Juniors” in this ETF are: PAAS, HL, MAG, SIL, SVM and SSO.

Recommendation to Consider

Buy SILJ at $17.00 per share or better.

And regarding Silver purchases at this time, though, at best, Technicals provide only probabilities, you might also consider a “Pennant flag” formation on the long-term monthly chart which suggests a Breakout upside soon from a potential Washout law.

And the weekly chart indicates a 100% Fibonacci Measured move in the Near future. Indeed, the long-term upside Target is $65 per ounce and perhaps as much as $100 per ounce.

Best Regards,

Deepcaster
November 9, 2020

 


ALERT

Election Consequences for Key Market Sectors & Positioning for Profit and Protection

As we write, we know the U.S. Senate will remain Republican, the U.S. House Democrat.

And we may well not know the result of the Presidential Election for many days or even weeks.

Therefore, the Key Sector Market Consequences are:

The prospect of a divided government has caused the Equities Market and especially the Big Tech Sector to rally, but it is highly likely this rally is only temporary.

Indeed, assuming the Chaos resulting from the disputed Presidential contest continues we expect the probabilities of a Equities Crash extending beyond the USA to rise the longer it continues—Markets like certainty and stability.

Since we believe the Uncertainty-generated chaos will continue and intensify we think an Equities Crash beginning in the Next few days or weeks is likely.

In addition, we do expect that, since we are now post-election, that some multi-billion stimulus bill will pass. The pandemic is not likely to disappear any time soon and neither will the economic damage it has wrought.

Economies worldwide will likely be in the doldrums for months to come.

And these two will surely entail more money printing, thus even greater deficit spending and even greater U.S. National Debt, other Key Economies, e.g., the E.U. and Japan are in the same boat.

But the Money Printing is inevitably leading to Inflation, i.e., a reduction in the purchasing power of Fiat Currencies like the US$, Euro and the others.

And this will mean that the price of essential commodities (e.g., oil) food will rise dramatically, beginning some time in the next very few months.

And since Silver is de facto an essential commodity (given its multiple essential uses, including as Real Money), it should throw of the shackles of Cartel Price Suppression and rise to $100 per ounce or more. Indeed, the Silver launch has already begun as we forecast.

Gold will likely shoot up too, but its price is potentially more controllable as FDR 1933 Edict has demonstrated.

In sum, we are in for many months of very challenging times.

But after many months, and since we will eventually surmount the pandemic, those sectors which were suppressed by it will rally, e.g., certain commercial Real Estate subsectors.

As the foregoing Trends develop, the positions which we have already recommended (and we expect more to come) should provide considerable Profit and Protection.

Pay special attention to the Precious Metals Recommendations. Their launch has begun.

Best Regards,

Deepcaster
November 5, 2020


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